2010 · Week 5

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Kevin Kolb

27·24

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge map49ers
  • +0.078EPA / play-0.055
  • 44.2%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback-0.024
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.102
  • 11.1%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +4.09CPOE-4.51
  • 39.7%Third-down rate33.2%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.30
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 9–7 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsSF @ PHI23–19SF
2023 · W13SF @ PHI42–19SF
2022 · playoffsSF @ PHI7–31PHI
2021 · W2SF @ PHI17–11SF
2020 · W4PHI @ SF25–20PHI
2017 · W8SF @ PHI10–33PHI
2014 · W4PHI @ SF21–26SF
2011 · W4SF @ PHI24–23SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SF
SFQ1 15:001256Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 7:531185Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 2:23419Turnover7–7
PHIQ1 0:16631Field goal10–7
SFQ2 11:45624Turnover10–7
PHIQ2 7:47514Punt10–7
SFQ2 4:5135Punt10–7
PHIQ2 3:03353Touchdown17–7
SFQ2 1:5300Field goal17–7
SFQ2 1:5300Field goal17–7
SFQ2 1:53853Field goal17–10
PHIQ2 0:433-2Turnover17–10
SFQ2 0:16213Missed field goal17–10
PHIQ2 0:0200End of half17–10
PHIQ3 15:00547Punt17–10
SFQ3 12:33543Turnover17–10
PHIQ3 10:32726Turnover on downs17–10
SFQ3 6:4334Punt17–10
PHIQ3 5:061054Missed field goal17–10
SFQ4 14:5538Opp touchdown24–10
SFQ4 13:2630Punt24–10
PHIQ4 12:5335Punt24–10
SFQ4 11:10774Touchdown24–17
PHIQ4 7:35533Field goal27–17
SFQ4 4:35741Touchdown27–24
PHIQ4 2:0238Punt27–24
SFQ4 1:28524Turnover27–24
PHIQ4 0:2800End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb21/3125310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy18925.11
Kevin Kolb3175.70
Mike Bell482.00
DeSean Jackson188.00
Eldra Buckley100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin69950
Brent Celek39471
LeSean McCoy55460
DeSean Jackson23240
Jason Avant22130
Chad Hall1190

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith25/3930932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore18522.90
Alex Smith3165.30
Brian Westbrook166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree9141051
Vernon Davis571041
Dominique Zeigler22320
Ted Ginn23260
Frank Gore48211
Josh Morgan34210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.45
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.73