Closing spread
SF -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.078EPA / play-0.055
- 44.2%Success rate38.8%
- +0.104EPA / dropback-0.024
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.102
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.09CPOE-4.51
- 39.7%Third-down rate33.2%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.97Points / drive1.30
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 21/31 | 253 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 18 | 92 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 9 | 95 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 9 | 47 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 25/39 | 309 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 52 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 9 | 14 | 105 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 7 | 104 | 1 |
| Dominique Zeigler | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 8 | 21 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.73