Closing spread
SD -7
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutLarry EnglishLBFoot· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulBrandon SilerLBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulDarrell StuckeySHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableLouis VasquezGKnee· Full
- QuestionableShawne MerrimanLBCalf· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAntwan ApplewhiteLBFoot· Full
Raiders
- OutChaz SchilensWRKnee· DNP
- OutDarren McFaddenRBHamstring· DNP
- OutJohn HendersonDTFoot· DNP
- OutMichael BennettRBHamstring· DNP
- OutRobert GalleryGHamstring· DNP
- OutThomas HowardLBKnee· DNP
- OutTravis GoethelLBBack· DNP
- QuestionableJeremy WareCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableQuentin GrovesLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableRicky BrownLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableWalter McFaddenCBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableBruce GradkowskiQBright Shoulder· Full
- ProbableChris JohnsonCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableHiram EugeneSHamstring· Full
- ProbableZach MillerTEHip· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Safety | 0–2 |
| LV | Q1 13:56 | 4 | 18 | Field goal | 0–5 |
| LAC | Q1 12:03 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 0–12 |
| LAC | Q1 10:33 | 14 | 78 | Turnover | 0–12 |
| LV | Q1 2:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–12 |
| LAC | Q1 1:46 | 3 | 53 | Turnover | 0–12 |
| LV | Q1 0:22 | 3 | 18 | Punt | 0–12 |
| LAC | Q2 14:08 | 4 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–12 |
| LAC | Q2 12:01 | 4 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–12 |
| LV | Q2 10:07 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–12 |
| LAC | Q2 8:57 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–12 |
| LV | Q2 4:49 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 14–15 |
| LAC | Q2 0:58 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 17–15 |
| LV | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–15 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–15 |
| LAC | Q3 14:00 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 17–15 |
| LV | Q3 10:24 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 17–15 |
| LAC | Q3 8:20 | 2 | 58 | Touchdown | 24–15 |
| LV | Q3 7:38 | 12 | 102 | Touchdown | 24–22 |
| LAC | Q3 1:12 | 9 | 53 | Field goal | 27–22 |
| LV | Q4 12:00 | 16 | 73 | Touchdown | 27–28 |
| LAC | Q4 3:39 | 10 | 35 | Opp touchdown | 27–35 |
| LAC | Q4 0:58 | 5 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 27–35 |
| LV | Q4 0:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–35 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.