Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutBilly BajemaTEKnee· Limited
- OutChris ChamberlainLBToe· DNP
- OutDarell ScottDTAnkle· DNP
- OutKevin DockeryCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableClifton RyanDTmigraines· Full
- QuestionableJustin KingCBright Calf· DNP
- QuestionableMichael HoomanawanuiTEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableDonnie JonesPleft Calf· Limited
- ProbableGary GibsonDTShoulder· Limited
- ProbableDarian StewartSHamstring· Full
- ProbableLaurent RobinsonWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableRodger SaffoldTtibia· Full
- ProbableSteven JacksonRBGroin· Full
Lions
- OutDeAndre LevyLBGroin· DNP
- OutMatthew StaffordQBright Shoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulAaron BrownRBFinger· Limited
- QuestionableC.C. BrownSQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableJahvid BestRBToe· Limited
- QuestionableTony SchefflerTEConcussion· Limited
- ProbableLouis DelmasSGroin· Limited
- ProbableNate BurlesonWRAnkle· Limited
- ProbableSammie Lee HillDTKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 13:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 12:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 10:38 | 7 | 52 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 7:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 6:20 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| DET | Q2 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 14:46 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DET | Q2 13:30 | 13 | 91 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LA | Q2 6:14 | 12 | 45 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| DET | Q2 1:37 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| LA | Q2 0:10 | 1 | 27 | End of half | 6–24 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 6–24 |
| DET | Q3 12:47 | 4 | 41 | Touchdown | 6–31 |
| LA | Q3 10:54 | 10 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 6–31 |
| DET | Q3 5:45 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 6–31 |
| LA | Q3 3:04 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 6–31 |
| DET | Q3 0:41 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 6–34 |
| LA | Q4 11:18 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 6–34 |
| DET | Q4 9:21 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 6–37 |
| LA | Q4 7:50 | 3 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 6–44 |
| LA | Q4 7:06 | 12 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 6–44 |
| DET | Q4 3:08 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 6–44 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 21/32 | 227 | 3 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.