Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 21/32 | 227 | 3 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 4 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.83
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.