Closing spread
PIT -14
Total
37.5
Model margin
+7.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.035
- 40.5%Success rate40.3%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.5%
- +2.13CPOE+3.44
- 37.8%Third-down rate44.1%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.31Points / drive1.89
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 23/33 | 281 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 6 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Evan Moore | 4 | 5 | 84 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/27 | 257 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 27 | 84 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 5 | 90 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 5 | 8 | 54 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+7.55