2010 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

10·28

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PIT -14

Total

37.5

Model margin

+7.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.035
  • 40.5%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +2.13CPOE+3.44
  • 37.8%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.89
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
CLEQ1 15:00820Turnover0–0
PITQ1 11:12931Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 6:07719Field goal3–0
PITQ1 1:511181Touchdown3–7
CLEQ2 10:40531Punt3–7
PITQ2 7:54638Punt3–7
CLEQ2 4:53834Punt3–7
PITQ2 0:5630Punt3–7
PITQ3 15:00738Punt3–7
CLEQ3 11:311051Punt3–7
PITQ3 5:12596Touchdown3–14
CLEQ3 3:13429Punt3–14
PITQ3 1:04832Punt3–14
CLEQ4 11:2534Punt3–14
PITQ4 10:30524Punt3–14
PITQ4 7:50413Touchdown3–21
CLEQ4 5:50670Touchdown10–21
PITQ4 4:0937Punt10–21
CLEQ4 2:30412Turnover10–21
PITQ4 1:42318Touchdown10–28
CLEQ4 1:25658End of half10–28

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy23/3328112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis12413.40
Colt McCoy4225.50
Mike Bell231.50
Josh Cribbs320.70
Chansi Stuckey122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson69881
Evan Moore45840
Peyton Hillis67490
Chansi Stuckey45460
Brian Robiskie24130
Josh Cribbs0100
Mohamed Massaquoi0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger16/2725731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall27843.11
Isaac Redman6315.20
Ben Roethlisberger155.00
Mewelde Moore111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace35901
Hines Ward58541
Heath Miller24501
Emmanuel Sanders22370
Rashard Mendenhall34150
Antwaan Randle El12110
Mewelde Moore0100
Matt Spaeth0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+7.55