Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.085
- 45.5%Success rate45.1%
- +0.176EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.041EPA / rush-0.130
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.70CPOE+5.77
- 40.5%Third-down rate45.4%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 1.77Points / drive2.31
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/35 | 198 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 10 | 13 | 98 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/24 | 234 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 63 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 6 | 7 | 141 | 3 |
| Bernard Berrian | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.69