2009 · DIV

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

3·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapVikings
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.085
  • 45.5%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.176EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.041EPA / rush-0.130
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.70CPOE+5.77
  • 40.5%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.31
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIN @ DAL34–26MIN
2022 · W11DAL @ MIN40–3DAL
2021 · W8DAL @ MIN20–16DAL
2020 · W11DAL @ MIN31–28DAL
2019 · W10MIN @ DAL28–24MIN
2016 · W13DAL @ MIN17–15DAL
2013 · W9MIN @ DAL23–27DAL
2010 · W6DAL @ MIN21–24MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–MIN
DALQ1 15:00934Turnover0–0
MINQ1 10:503-6Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:39640Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 5:48461Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 4:041267Field goal3–7
MINQ2 12:111080Touchdown3–14
DALQ2 7:232-9Turnover3–14
MINQ2 6:29519Field goal3–17
DALQ2 3:46519Punt3–17
MINQ2 1:51613Punt3–17
DALQ2 0:133-6End of half3–17
MINQ3 15:0037Punt3–17
DALQ3 12:53626Missed field goal3–17
MINQ3 8:54625Punt3–17
DALQ3 5:0131Punt3–17
MINQ3 3:573-7Punt3–17
DALQ3 2:3530Turnover3–17
MINQ3 1:0735Field goal3–20
DALQ4 14:23634Punt3–20
MINQ4 11:59786Touchdown3–27
DALQ4 7:3247Turnover on downs3–27
MINQ4 6:2443Turnover on downs3–27
DALQ4 6:0647Turnover on downs3–27
MINQ4 5:26637Touchdown3–34
DALQ4 1:55428End of half3–34

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/3519801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones14694.90
Marion Barber8141.80
Miles Austin188.00
Tashard Choice111.00
Tony Romo100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten1013980
Miles Austin48340
Martellus Bennett34270
Felix Jones34220
Patrick Crayton24170
Roy Williams0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre15/2423440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson26632.40
Chester Taylor4235.80
Percy Harvin3237.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice671413
Bernard Berrian36320
Adrian Peterson12190
Chester Taylor23160
Jimmy Kleinsasser11140
Visanthe Shiancoe11111
Percy Harvin1410

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.69