Closing spread
NYG -10
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.006
- 40.5%Success rate44.3%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.118
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.7%
- -3.37CPOE+2.60
- 40.4%Third-down rate37.0%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.81
- 2.2%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. NYG are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 19/34 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
| Shaun Hill | 9/15 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 12 | 16 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 7 | 146 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 7 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Jahvid Best | 6 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/30 | 177 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 19 | 133 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 6 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Kevin Boss | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.03