2010 · Week 6

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Shaun Hill

20·28

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYG -10

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapGiants
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.006
  • 40.5%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.081
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.118
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -3.37CPOE+2.60
  • 40.4%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.81
  • 2.2%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 7–4 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. NYG are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYG @ DET27–34DET
2022 · W11DET @ NYG31–18DET
2019 · W8NYG @ DET26–31DET
2017 · W2DET @ NYG24–10DET
2016 · W15DET @ NYG6–17NYG
2014 · W1NYG @ DET14–35DET
2013 · W16NYG @ DET23–20NYG
2007 · W11NYG @ DET16–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00711Turnover0–0
DETQ1 11:45943Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 7:45415Punt7–0
DETQ1 5:2334Punt7–0
NYGQ1 3:53540Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 1:303-6Punt7–7
NYGQ2 14:4349Punt7–7
DETQ2 12:33626Punt7–7
NYGQ2 9:561398Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 3:141379Field goal10–14
DETQ3 15:00931Turnover10–14
NYGQ3 11:081045Touchdown10–21
DETQ3 6:4332Punt10–21
NYGQ3 5:08934Punt10–21
DETQ4 14:53387Touchdown17–21
NYGQ4 13:1738Punt17–21
DETQ4 11:383-1Punt17–21
NYGQ4 10:38419Punt17–21
DETQ4 8:23845Turnover17–21
NYGQ4 5:01358Touchdown17–28
DETQ4 3:2438Field goal20–28
NYGQ4 2:503-2Punt20–28
DETQ4 2:18948Turnover20–28
NYGQ4 0:0700End of half20–28

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton19/3422211
Shaun Hill9/159110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drew Stanton33010.00
Kevin Smith4174.30
Jahvid Best12161.30
Nate Burleson1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson571461
Brandon Pettigrew712610
Nate Burleson69501
Jahvid Best66310
Bryant Johnson26200
Tony Scheffler2450
Kevin Smith0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/3017720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw191337.00
Brandon Jacobs9353.92
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith69700
Mario Manningham46511
Kevin Boss23270
Ahmad Bradshaw22100
Bear Pascoe22100
Hakeem Nicks3780
Travis Beckum1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.03