2014 · Week 1

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

14·35

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -6.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapLions
  • -0.014EPA / play-0.006
  • 41.2%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.159
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +0.79CPOE-4.76
  • 43.5%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.79
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 7–4 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYG @ DET27–34DET
2022 · W11DET @ NYG31–18DET
2019 · W8NYG @ DET26–31DET
2017 · W2DET @ NYG24–10DET
2016 · W15DET @ NYG6–17NYG
2013 · W16NYG @ DET23–20NYG
2010 · W6DET @ NYG20–28NYG
2007 · W11NYG @ DET16–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DET
DETQ1 15:00585Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 12:113-1Punt0–7
DETQ1 10:351069Touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 5:1256Punt0–14
DETQ1 3:4133Punt0–14
NYGQ1 2:501546Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 12:5437Punt7–14
NYGQ2 10:4152Punt7–14
DETQ2 8:181060Missed field goal7–14
NYGQ2 1:55622Punt7–14
DETQ2 0:4914End of half7–14
NYGQ3 15:0032Turnover7–14
DETQ3 13:3138Field goal7–17
NYGQ3 11:5436Punt7–17
DETQ3 9:52866Field goal7–20
NYGQ3 5:5010Turnover7–20
DETQ3 5:32519Touchdown7–27
NYGQ3 3:511490Touchdown14–27
DETQ4 11:531280Touchdown14–35
NYGQ4 4:39524Turnover on downs14–35
DETQ4 3:02319End of half14–35

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning18/3316312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings16462.91
Andre Williams591.80
Jerrel Jernigan1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Donnell58561
Rashad Jennings45500
Jerrel Jernigan47250
Victor Cruz26240
Daniel Fells1170
Rueben Randle2310
Corey Washington0100
Andre Williams0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3234620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell15513.41
Reggie Bush9151.70
Golden Tate144.00
Theo Riddick144.00
Matthew Stafford420.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson7111642
Golden Tate66930
Reggie Bush66490
Joseph Fauria13260
Brandon Pettigrew1190
Joique Bell1150
Eric Ebron0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.53