Closing spread
DET -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.006
- 41.2%Success rate41.8%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.159
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.79CPOE-4.76
- 43.5%Third-down rate38.3%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.78Points / drive1.79
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/33 | 163 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Andre Williams | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Donnell | 5 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Jerrel Jernigan | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Corey Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/32 | 346 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 11 | 164 | 2 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.53