2016 · Week 15

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

6·17

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

NYG -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapGiants
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.074
  • 45.4%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.07CPOE-1.63
  • 42.7%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.46
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 7–4 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. NYG are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYG @ DET27–34DET
2022 · W11DET @ NYG31–18DET
2019 · W8NYG @ DET26–31DET
2017 · W2DET @ NYG24–10DET
2014 · W1NYG @ DET14–35DET
2013 · W16NYG @ DET23–20NYG
2010 · W6DET @ NYG20–28NYG
2007 · W11NYG @ DET16–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 9:23415Punt0–7
NYGQ1 6:3339Punt0–7
DETQ1 4:291135Field goal3–7
NYGQ2 14:0235Punt3–7
DETQ2 11:50274Turnover3–7
NYGQ2 10:531161Field goal3–10
DETQ2 5:0038Punt3–10
NYGQ2 3:2035Punt3–10
DETQ2 1:53517Punt3–10
NYGQ2 0:41533End of half3–10
DETQ3 15:001239Field goal6–10
NYGQ3 7:401142Punt6–10
DETQ3 2:1339Punt6–10
NYGQ3 0:163-8Punt6–10
DETQ4 14:37936Punt6–10
NYGQ4 9:10871Touchdown6–17
DETQ4 5:4730Punt6–17
NYGQ4 4:5635Punt6–17
DETQ4 3:49858Turnover6–17
NYGQ4 1:5832Punt6–17
DETQ4 0:12233End of half6–17

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3927301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dwayne Washington14312.20
Matthew Stafford2136.50
Zach Zenner3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate8131220
Zach Zenner45520
Marvin Jones35410
Eric Ebron47360
Anquan Boldin34130
Dwayne Washington2490

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/2820120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Paul Perkins11565.10
Rashad Jennings18382.10
Shane Vereen2115.50
Odell Beckham Jr.199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.68641
Sterling Shepard45561
Victor Cruz12290
Will Tye44250
Jerell Adams34180
Shane Vereen2490
Paul Perkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.21