Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.074
- 45.4%Success rate40.8%
- +0.166EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.07CPOE-1.63
- 42.7%Third-down rate36.0%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.05Points / drive1.46
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. NYG are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/39 | 273 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Washington | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 8 | 13 | 122 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/28 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Perkins | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 18 | 38 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.21