Closing spread
NYG -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.065
- 44.2%Success rate42.9%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.32CPOE+1.53
- 41.9%Third-down rate32.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.67Points / drive1.58
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 28/39 | 283 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 11 | 13 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.41