2007 · Week 11

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

16·10

Lions

Detroit

QB Jon Kitna

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NYG -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapLions
  • -0.038EPA / play-0.065
  • 44.2%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.008EPA / rush-0.134
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -5.32CPOE+1.53
  • 41.9%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.58
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 7–4 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYG @ DET27–34DET
2022 · W11DET @ NYG31–18DET
2019 · W8NYG @ DET26–31DET
2017 · W2DET @ NYG24–10DET
2016 · W15DET @ NYG6–17NYG
2014 · W1NYG @ DET14–35DET
2013 · W16NYG @ DET23–20NYG
2010 · W6DET @ NYG20–28NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DET
DETQ1 15:00521Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:45617Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:07747Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:48981Field goal3–0
DETQ1 0:373-9Punt3–0
NYGQ2 14:06424Turnover3–0
DETQ2 12:11413Punt3–0
NYGQ2 10:38644Punt3–0
DETQ2 6:11428Punt3–0
NYGQ2 4:071175Touchdown10–0
DETQ2 0:23331Turnover10–0
NYGQ3 15:0030Punt10–0
DETQ3 14:32743Field goal10–3
NYGQ3 10:5226Turnover10–3
DETQ3 9:59745Missed field goal10–3
NYGQ3 5:57525Field goal13–3
DETQ3 2:39320Turnover13–3
NYGQ3 1:05948Field goal16–3
DETQ4 11:15428Punt16–3
NYGQ4 10:19725Punt16–3
DETQ4 5:52477Touchdown16–10
NYGQ4 4:343-1Punt16–10
DETQ4 2:2542Turnover16–10
NYGQ4 1:5430Punt16–10
DETQ4 1:25330Turnover16–10
NYGQ4 0:4800End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning28/3928310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs11544.90
Reuben Droughns11131.20
Eli Manning551.00

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna28/4337713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Jones11252.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.41