2017 · Week 2

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

24·10

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 72°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

42

Model margin

-0.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapGiants
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.106
  • 40.8%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.278EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +0.41CPOE-3.91
  • 38.4%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.19
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 7–4 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. NYG are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYG @ DET27–34DET
2022 · W11DET @ NYG31–18DET
2019 · W8NYG @ DET26–31DET
2016 · W15DET @ NYG6–17NYG
2014 · W1NYG @ DET14–35DET
2013 · W16NYG @ DET23–20NYG
2010 · W6DET @ NYG20–28NYG
2007 · W11NYG @ DET16–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NYG
DETQ1 15:00525Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:2531Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:431064Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 4:00875Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 14:5569Turnover7–7
NYGQ2 11:4510Turnover7–7
DETQ2 11:35529Touchdown14–7
NYGQ2 8:434-1Punt14–7
DETQ2 5:363-1Punt14–7
NYGQ2 4:243-3Punt14–7
DETQ2 2:59647Field goal17–7
NYGQ2 0:3018End of half17–7
NYGQ3 15:0034Punt17–7
DETQ3 12:5631Punt17–7
NYGQ3 10:431083Field goal17–10
DETQ3 4:581232Punt17–10
NYGQ4 14:4139Opp touchdown24–10
NYGQ4 12:56725Turnover on downs24–10
DETQ4 10:0234Punt24–10
NYGQ4 7:481262Turnover on downs24–10
DETQ4 4:28947Turnover on downs24–10
NYGQ4 0:2617End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford15/2112220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah17865.10
Matthew Stafford3237.70
Theo Riddick9202.20
Dwayne Washington393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron55421
Marvin Jones15271
Golden Tate44250
Theo Riddick33170
Kenny Golladay1380
Darren Fells1130

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning22/3223911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shane Vereen6284.70
Orleans Darkwa3175.70
Paul Perkins7101.40
Sterling Shepard273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram47491
Jerell Adams11380
Odell Beckham Jr.45360
Shane Vereen33270
Sterling Shepard24230
Rhett Ellison22210
Brandon Marshall15170
Roger Lewis22130
Paul Perkins22120
Orleans Darkwa1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.08