Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
42
Model margin
-0.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.106
- 40.8%Success rate41.1%
- +0.074EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.278EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.2%
- +0.41CPOE-3.91
- 38.4%Third-down rate32.5%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.78Points / drive1.19
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. NYG are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 15/21 | 122 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 17 | 86 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 22/32 | 239 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Vereen | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 4 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Jerell Adams | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.08