Closing spread
DET -14
Total
50.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.071
- 42.9%Success rate45.0%
- +0.099EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.30CPOE+1.64
- 39.6%Third-down rate39.2%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 2.06Points / drive2.54
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 18/36 | 366 | 2 | 1 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1/1 | 33 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 20 | 62 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 9 | 14 | 156 | 1 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 3 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 2 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 1 | 33 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 28/42 | 279 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 219 | 14.6 | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 13 | 149 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 12 | 45 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.21