2025 · Week 12

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Jameis Winston

27·34

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -14

Total

50.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapLions
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.071
  • 42.9%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.30CPOE+1.64
  • 39.6%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 2.06Points / drive2.54
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 7–4 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11DET @ NYG31–18DET
2019 · W8NYG @ DET26–31DET
2017 · W2DET @ NYG24–10DET
2016 · W15DET @ NYG6–17NYG
2014 · W1NYG @ DET14–35DET
2013 · W16NYG @ DET23–20NYG
2010 · W6DET @ NYG20–28NYG
2007 · W11NYG @ DET16–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DET
NYGQ1 15:00565Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 12:56822Punt7–0
NYGQ1 7:5631Punt7–0
DETQ1 6:2431Punt7–0
NYGQ1 5:03978Field goal10–0
DETQ2 15:00861Touchdown10–7
NYGQ2 11:41669Touchdown17–7
DETQ2 8:2154Punt17–7
NYGQ2 6:1039Punt17–7
DETQ2 4:01456Touchdown17–14
NYGQ2 2:16632Field goal20–14
DETQ2 0:38338Field goal20–17
DETQ3 15:00738Punt20–17
NYGQ3 10:49947Punt20–17
DETQ3 7:171070Turnover20–17
NYGQ3 2:19985Touchdown27–17
DETQ4 12:16381Touchdown27–24
NYGQ4 10:5010Turnover27–24
DETQ4 10:4531Punt27–24
NYGQ4 9:481693Turnover on downs27–24
DETQ4 2:541253Field goal27–27
NYGQ4 0:2820End of half27–27
DETOT169Touchdown27–34
NYGOT1239Turnover on downs27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston18/3636621
Gunner Olszewski1/13310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.20623.10
Devin Singletary14473.40
Jameis Winston4133.30
Wan'Dale Robinson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson9141561
Theo Johnson35770
Tyrone Tracy Jr.34680
Isaiah Hodgins26421
Jameis Winston11331
Darius Slayton12230
Daniel Bellinger0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff28/4227921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs1521914.62
David Montgomery5183.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown9131491
Jahmyr Gibbs1112451
Kalif Raymond22370
Brock Wright34290
David Montgomery33190
Jameson Williams0300
Isaac TeSlaa0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.21