2013 · Week 16

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

23·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -9.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapLions
  • -0.142EPA / play-0.004
  • 40.2%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.235EPA / rush-0.142
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -3.07CPOE-3.33
  • 32.2%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.75
  • 4.0%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 7–4 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYG @ DET27–34DET
2022 · W11DET @ NYG31–18DET
2019 · W8NYG @ DET26–31DET
2017 · W2DET @ NYG24–10DET
2016 · W15DET @ NYG6–17NYG
2014 · W1NYG @ DET14–35DET
2010 · W6DET @ NYG20–28NYG
2007 · W11NYG @ DET16–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DET
DETQ1 15:001039Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:311469Field goal3–0
DETQ1 3:491163Field goal3–3
NYGQ2 12:3834Punt3–3
DETQ2 11:00832Turnover3–3
NYGQ2 7:40954Touchdown10–3
DETQ2 2:19942Turnover10–3
NYGQ2 0:47418Field goal13–3
DETQ2 0:0900End of half13–3
NYGQ3 15:0036Punt13–3
DETQ3 13:16830Touchdown13–10
NYGQ3 9:0637Punt13–10
DETQ3 7:29843Punt13–10
NYGQ3 2:283-12Safety13–12
DETQ3 1:01963Touchdown13–20
NYGQ4 11:5039Punt13–20
DETQ4 9:3348Punt13–20
NYGQ4 7:3032Punt13–20
DETQ4 6:3045Opp touchdown20–20
DETQ4 4:5739Punt20–20
NYGQ4 3:37531Punt20–20
DETQ4 1:5248Punt20–20
NYGQ4 0:50314Turnover20–20
DETQ4 0:2316End of half20–20
NYGOT222Turnover20–20
DETOT48Punt20–20
NYGOT1155Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning23/4225611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Brown16402.50
Bear Pascoe122.00
Michael Cox210.50
Eli Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerrel Jernigan612801
Brandon Myers47530
Hakeem Nicks47520
Rueben Randle49400
Andre Brown23140
Louis Murphy22100
Bear Pascoe1270

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/4222202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell20914.51
Reggie Bush12342.80
Jeremy Ross11616.00
Theo Riddick284.01
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joique Bell1010630
Calvin Johnson34430
Joseph Fauria37430
Kevin Ogletree24290
Kris Durham27140
Nate Burleson22120
Reggie Bush24100
Dorin Dickerson1380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.01