Closing spread
DET -9.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.142EPA / play-0.004
- 40.2%Success rate43.1%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.235EPA / rush-0.142
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- -3.07CPOE-3.33
- 32.2%Third-down rate42.9%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate73.4%
- 1.06Points / drive1.75
- 4.0%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/42 | 256 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Brown | 16 | 40 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Michael Cox | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerrel Jernigan | 6 | 12 | 80 | 1 |
| Brandon Myers | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/42 | 222 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 20 | 91 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 10 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.01