2022 · Week 11

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

31·18

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

44

Model margin

+0.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapGiants
  • +0.073EPA / play+0.033
  • 45.7%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.004
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.27CPOE+1.68
  • 41.5%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.02
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 7–4 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. NYG are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12NYG @ DET27–34DET
2019 · W8NYG @ DET26–31DET
2017 · W2DET @ NYG24–10DET
2016 · W15DET @ NYG6–17NYG
2014 · W1NYG @ DET14–35DET
2013 · W16NYG @ DET23–20NYG
2010 · W6DET @ NYG20–28NYG
2007 · W11NYG @ DET16–10NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NYG
NYGQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:581149Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 7:521175Touchdown3–6
DETQ1 2:41714Punt3–6
NYGQ2 14:131042Punt3–6
DETQ2 9:0039Punt3–6
NYGQ2 6:5124Turnover3–6
DETQ2 6:09416Touchdown10–6
NYGQ2 4:38637Punt10–6
DETQ2 2:19878Touchdown17–6
NYGQ2 0:54725End of half17–6
DETQ3 15:00956Touchdown24–6
NYGQ3 10:10735Turnover24–6
DETQ3 7:2233Punt24–6
NYGQ3 6:20944Punt24–6
DETQ3 3:0037Punt24–6
NYGQ3 1:22967Touchdown24–12
DETQ4 13:21741Punt24–12
NYGQ4 8:45418Turnover24–12
DETQ4 7:53433Touchdown31–12
NYGQ4 6:10770Touchdown31–18
DETQ4 4:20522End of half31–18

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff17/2616500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Jackson9667.30
Jamaal Williams17643.83
D'Andre Swift5204.01
Kalif Raymond177.00
Amon-Ra St. Brown144.00
Jared Goff4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown78760
Kalif Raymond37330
Brock Wright22200
Tom Kennedy11130
D'Andre Swift33120
Justin Jackson11110
DJ Chark0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones27/4434112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones7507.11
Saquon Barkley15221.50
Matt Breida3134.31
Wan'Dale Robinson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson9131000
Darius Slayton510860
Richie James33481
Kenny Golladay22290
Isaiah Hodgins33290
Lawrence Cager23200
Matt Breida11160
Saquon Barkley25130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.28