Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
44
Model margin
+0.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.073EPA / play+0.033
- 45.7%Success rate45.0%
- +0.173EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.004
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.27CPOE+1.68
- 41.5%Third-down rate37.7%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 2.36Points / drive2.02
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. NYG are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 17/26 | 165 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 3 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 27/44 | 341 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 15 | 22 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 9 | 13 | 100 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Richie James | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.28