Closing spread
DET -6.5
Total
49
Model margin
+0.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play-0.039
- 41.8%Success rate41.5%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.049
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.92CPOE-3.54
- 37.8%Third-down rate41.4%
- 69.6%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.56Points / drive1.73
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 28/41 | 322 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 8 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 8 | 10 | 79 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 5 | 50 | 2 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 7 | 40 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/32 | 342 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tra Carson | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 8 | 123 | 2 |
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 8 | 95 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 49 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.83