2010 · Week 6

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

31·35

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapTexans
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.107
  • 42.3%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.031EPA / rush+0.039
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.87CPOE+0.65
  • 37.4%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.09
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14HOU @ KC20–10HOU
2024 · playoffsHOU @ KC14–23KC
2024 · W16HOU @ KC19–27KC
2022 · W15KC @ HOU30–24KC
2020 · W1HOU @ KC20–34KC
2019 · playoffsHOU @ KC31–51KC
2019 · W6HOU @ KC31–24HOU
2017 · W5KC @ HOU42–34KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–HOU
KCQ1 15:001673Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 6:2339Punt7–0
KCQ1 4:05628Punt7–0
HOUQ1 0:48637Punt7–0
KCQ2 12:4836Punt7–0
HOUQ2 11:22974Touchdown7–7
KCQ2 6:45523Punt7–7
HOUQ2 4:113-4Punt7–7
KCQ2 2:13763Touchdown14–7
HOUQ2 0:131-1End of half14–7
HOUQ3 15:00528Punt14–7
KCQ3 13:12977Touchdown21–7
HOUQ3 8:19366Touchdown21–14
KCQ3 7:02865Field goal24–14
HOUQ3 2:581146Touchdown24–21
KCQ4 12:06963Touchdown31–21
HOUQ4 7:05886Touchdown31–28
KCQ4 3:3038Punt31–28
HOUQ4 2:22980Touchdown31–35
KCQ4 0:28411End of half31–35

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel20/2920130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones191005.31
Jamaal Charles16935.80
Dexter McCluster22713.50
Matt Cassel188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe691082
Jamaal Charles44240
Tony Moeaki23210
Dexter McCluster34130
Leonard Pope11120
Thomas Jones12100
Jake O'Connell1170
Terrance Copper0200
Jeremy Horne0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub25/3330520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster18713.92
Derrick Ward35819.31
Matt Schaub133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson8131381
Owen Daniels57790
Jacoby Jones44450
Arian Foster66260
Derrick Ward11120
Joel Dreessen1151

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.58