Closing spread
HOU -4.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.107
- 42.3%Success rate47.5%
- +0.099EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.031EPA / rush+0.039
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.87CPOE+0.65
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.2%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.70Points / drive2.09
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.6 points. HOU are 8-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 20/29 | 201 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 100 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 16 | 93 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 9 | 108 | 2 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Horne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 25/33 | 305 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Derrick Ward | 3 | 58 | 19.3 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 13 | 138 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58