2010 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play+0.046
- 46.2%Success rate42.0%
- +0.121EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.133
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.0%
- +5.83CPOE+2.31
- 48.8%Third-down rate42.5%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.88Points / drive1.88
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 21/32 | 263 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 15 | 158 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Meachem | 4 | 5 | 71 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 25/43 | 219 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 2/4 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Huggins | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 7 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 3 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 7 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Kareem Huggins | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29