Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.107
- 39.6%Success rate40.9%
- -0.064EPA / dropback-0.082
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.30CPOE-1.58
- 37.3%Third-down rate34.0%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
- 1.57Points / drive1.38
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. SEA are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/27 | 247 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 21 | 66 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 4 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 5 | 8 | 76 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 26/44 | 261 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 19 | 98 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 9 | 12 | 109 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 10 | 28 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| John Owens | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.59
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.85