2009 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

25·19

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Seneca Wallace

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 60°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.107
  • 39.6%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.064EPA / dropback-0.082
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.150
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +0.30CPOE-1.58
  • 37.3%Third-down rate34.0%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate46.1%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.38
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. SEA are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17SEA @ CHI6–3SEA
2021 · W16CHI @ SEA25–24CHI
2018 · W2SEA @ CHI17–24CHI
2015 · W3CHI @ SEA0–26SEA
2012 · W13SEA @ CHI23–17SEA
2011 · W15SEA @ CHI38–14SEA
2010 · playoffsSEA @ CHI24–35CHI
2010 · W6SEA @ CHI23–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–SEA
CHIQ1 15:0035Missed field goal0–0
SEAQ1 13:22771Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 10:24987Turnover0–7
SEAQ1 5:271057Field goal0–10
CHIQ1 0:4038Punt0–10
SEAQ2 14:17628Field goal0–13
CHIQ2 12:02616Punt0–13
SEAQ2 8:163-6Punt0–13
CHIQ2 6:581071Touchdown7–13
SEAQ2 1:56730Missed field goal7–13
CHIQ2 0:091-1End of half7–13
SEAQ3 15:00211Turnover7–13
CHIQ3 14:08542Touchdown14–13
SEAQ3 11:28728Missed field goal14–13
CHIQ3 8:0834Punt14–13
SEAQ3 7:3810Turnover14–13
CHIQ3 7:293-5Field goal17–13
SEAQ3 5:311264Field goal17–16
CHIQ4 14:4838Punt17–16
SEAQ4 12:4031Punt17–16
CHIQ4 10:39513Turnover17–16
SEAQ4 8:12611Field goal17–19
CHIQ4 5:12671Touchdown25–19
SEAQ4 1:521151Turnover on downs25–19
CHIQ4 0:2600End of half25–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler21/2724731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte21663.10
Adrian Peterson2126.00
Garrett Wolfe382.70
Jay Cutler2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earl Bennett44800
Devin Hester58761
Greg Olsen56441
Matt Forte66400
Johnny Knox1371

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace26/4426111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones19985.20
Edgerrin James471.80
Justin Forsett242.00
Nate Burleson122.00
Seneca Wallace100.00
Deion Branch1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson9121090
Julius Jones34381
T.J. Houshmandzadeh49350
John Carlson310280
Deion Branch23130
Ben Obomanu11110
Deon Butler1180
John Owens1160
Cameron Morrah1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.59
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.85