2010 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

30·3

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.019
  • 40.0%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.153EPA / rush+0.030
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -0.87CPOE+1.85
  • 34.8%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.86
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:00664Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 12:3457Punt7–0
TENQ1 10:221039Punt7–0
JAXQ1 5:281049Punt7–0
TENQ2 14:4336Punt7–0
JAXQ2 13:25410Turnover7–0
TENQ2 12:16837Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 8:2236Punt14–0
TENQ2 6:471031Field goal17–0
JAXQ2 2:091155Turnover17–0
TENQ2 0:3700End of half17–0
JAXQ3 15:0033Turnover17–0
TENQ3 14:10418Field goal20–0
JAXQ3 11:25925Field goal20–3
TENQ3 7:051350Field goal23–3
JAXQ4 14:121870Turnover23–3
TENQ4 6:00980Touchdown30–3
JAXQ4 1:40624Turnover on downs30–3

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins11/1611010
Vince Young3/56110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson261114.31
Javon Ringer10424.20
Vince Young100.00
Kerry Collins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bo Scaife45531
Damian Williams44480
Kenny Britt25331
Chris Johnson22200
Nate Washington1290
Javon Ringer1180
Craig Stevens0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards14/2414002
David Garrard7/124901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew17573.40
Trent Edwards5163.20
Deji Karim331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas89880
Marcedes Lewis46390
Zach Miller22180
Mike Sims-Walker28160
Tiquan Underwood15110
Deji Karim2490
Maurice Jones-Drew2280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

47.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.85