Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.019
- 40.0%Success rate44.9%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.153EPA / rush+0.030
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.6%
- -0.87CPOE+1.85
- 34.8%Third-down rate39.5%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.83Points / drive1.86
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 11/16 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 3/5 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 26 | 111 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Javon Ringer | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Scaife | 4 | 5 | 53 | 1 |
| Damian Williams | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 14/24 | 140 | 0 | 2 |
| David Garrard | 7/12 | 49 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 8 | 9 | 88 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 2 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.85