Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.220EPA / play-0.117
- 37.1%Success rate38.3%
- -0.248EPA / dropback-0.072
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.194
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- -9.59CPOE-1.80
- 27.4%Third-down rate37.0%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.06Points / drive1.36
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 8/17 | 96 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Hall | 4/16 | 36 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 59 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 2 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 10 | 30 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Max Komar | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/38 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 24 | 89 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 11 | 16 | 87 | 1 |
| Deon Butler | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.69
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.96