2010 · Week 7

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Todd Bouman

20·42

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

KC -9

Total

38.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.034
  • 44.9%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback+0.099
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.031
  • 10.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.85CPOE-1.87
  • 39.5%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.70
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5KC @ JAX28–31JAX
2023 · W2KC @ JAX17–9KC
2022 · playoffsJAX @ KC20–27KC
2022 · W10JAX @ KC17–27KC
2019 · W1KC @ JAX40–26KC
2018 · W5JAX @ KC14–30KC
2016 · W9JAX @ KC14–19KC
2013 · W1KC @ JAX28–2KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–KC
JAXQ1 15:001033Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:36628Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:26274Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 5:51945Field goal3–7
KCQ1 1:1349Punt3–7
JAXQ2 14:11876Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 9:381583Touchdown10–14
JAXQ2 1:311051Field goal13–14
KCQ2 0:0710End of half13–14
KCQ3 15:00260Touchdown13–21
JAXQ3 14:23721Touchdown20–21
KCQ3 10:36730Punt20–21
JAXQ3 5:5922Opp touchdown20–28
JAXQ3 5:1330Punt20–28
KCQ3 3:581455Turnover on downs20–28
JAXQ4 11:16431Punt20–28
KCQ4 9:371075Touchdown20–35
JAXQ4 3:4634Turnover20–35
KCQ4 3:08312Touchdown20–42
JAXQ4 1:56537End of half20–42

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Todd Bouman18/3422222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew16472.90
Deji Karim5295.80
Todd Bouman284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Maurice Jones-Drew56741
Marcedes Lewis39440
Mike Sims-Walker36381
Tiquan Underwood22300
Zach Miller34250
Zach Potter12100
Deji Karim1310
Mike Thomas0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel13/1819320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones201256.31
Jamaal Charles15714.71
Dexter McCluster4287.00
Jackie Battle3124.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe35812
Tony Moeaki33420
Dexter McCluster55410
Terrance Copper12160
Leonard Pope0100
Verran Tucker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.20
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.83