Closing spread
KC -9
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.034
- 44.9%Success rate42.3%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.099
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.031
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.85CPOE-1.87
- 39.5%Third-down rate37.4%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.86Points / drive1.70
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bouman | 18/34 | 222 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 3 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 13/18 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 20 | 125 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 5 | 81 | 2 |
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Verran Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.20
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.83