2010 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

24·28

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • -0.112EPA / play+0.076
  • 42.3%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.117
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -2.30CPOE+5.31
  • 34.1%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.91
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
MINQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:56754Turnover0–0
MINQ1 8:3435Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:35576Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 5:07749Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 1:11579Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 14:53976Touchdown14–14
GBQ2 10:16719Turnover on downs14–14
MINQ2 7:08738Field goal17–14
GBQ2 3:59940Turnover17–14
MINQ2 1:01428End of half17–14
GBQ3 15:0038Punt17–14
MINQ3 13:51426Turnover17–14
GBQ3 11:44541Touchdown17–21
MINQ3 8:4424Opp touchdown17–28
MINQ3 7:45658Touchdown24–28
GBQ3 4:121242Turnover on downs24–28
MINQ4 12:10631Turnover24–28
GBQ4 9:18621Punt24–28
MINQ4 6:071783Turnover on downs24–28
GBQ4 0:2000End of half24–28

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre16/2921213

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson281314.71
Percy Harvin34113.71
Toby Gerhart5244.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin58650
Adrian Peterson22410
Randy Moss37301
Visanthe Shiancoe36300
Bernard Berrian12300
Jimmy Kleinsasser11100
Toby Gerhart1260
Greg Lewis0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3429522
Matt Flynn0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson13584.51
Aaron Rodgers3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones481070
Greg Jennings610741
Brandon Jackson33460
Donald Lee22270
Jordy Nelson47250
Andrew Quarless23161
Donald Driver0100
Dimitri Nance0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.11