Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.076
- 42.3%Success rate45.9%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.30CPOE+5.31
- 34.1%Third-down rate41.3%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.25Points / drive1.91
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 16/29 | 212 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 28 | 131 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/34 | 295 | 2 | 2 |
| Matt Flynn | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 4 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dimitri Nance | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.11