2010 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

41·35

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · open · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.002
  • 44.3%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback+0.048
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.085
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +2.60CPOE+2.25
  • 37.0%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.67
  • 4.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
NYGQ1 15:0030Turnover0–0
DALQ1 14:2725Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 13:3833Turnover0–7
DALQ1 12:02510Field goal0–10
NYGQ1 9:081179Touchdown7–10
DALQ1 2:58521Punt7–10
NYGQ2 15:00533Turnover7–10
DALQ2 12:20420Field goal7–13
NYGQ2 10:1039Opp touchdown7–20
NYGQ2 8:53873Touchdown14–20
DALQ2 4:223-10Punt14–20
NYGQ2 3:16556Touchdown21–20
DALQ2 1:15329Turnover21–20
NYGQ2 0:36419Field goal24–20
DALQ2 0:0200End of half24–20
DALQ3 15:0032Punt24–20
NYGQ3 13:17555Touchdown31–20
DALQ3 10:5631Punt31–20
NYGQ3 9:14780Touchdown38–20
DALQ3 5:2539Punt38–20
NYGQ3 3:5231Punt38–20
DALQ3 2:10410Punt38–20
NYGQ3 0:29510Punt38–20
DALQ4 11:551172Turnover on downs38–20
NYGQ4 8:15644Turnover38–20
DALQ4 4:392-3Turnover38–20
NYGQ4 4:2735Turnover38–26
DALQ4 3:22215Touchdown38–28
NYGQ4 3:17431Field goal41–28
DALQ4 1:55873Touchdown41–35
NYGQ4 0:4000End of half41–35

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning25/3530643

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw241265.30
Brandon Jacobs12756.31
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks9141082
Steve Smith9111011
Mario Manningham34401
Kevin Boss11230
Ramses Barden11220
Ahmad Bradshaw22120
Bear Pascoe0100
Travis Beckum0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna16/3318720
Tony Romo5/73910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones9353.90
Marion Barber461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten913951
Dez Bryant47542
Miles Austin38380
Felix Jones33270
Marion Barber1170
Martellus Bennett1150
Roy Williams0300
Sam Hurd0300
Chris Gronkowski0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.17
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.05