Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.002
- 44.3%Success rate43.2%
- +0.081EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.085
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- +2.60CPOE+2.25
- 37.0%Third-down rate40.4%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 1.81Points / drive1.67
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/35 | 306 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 24 | 126 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 12 | 75 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 9 | 14 | 108 | 2 |
| Steve Smith | 9 | 11 | 101 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Kevin Boss | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 9 | 13 | 95 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 7 | 54 | 2 |
| Miles Austin | 3 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.17
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.05