Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
43
Model margin
+1.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 12/29 | 198 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 6 | 37 | 2 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.