2010 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Jason Campbell

59·14

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -7

Total

43

Model margin

+1.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–DEN
LVQ1 15:00985Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 10:4410Opp touchdown14–0
DENQ1 10:3611Turnover14–0
LVQ1 10:02321Touchdown21–0
DENQ1 8:58538Turnover on downs21–0
LVQ1 7:12754Field goal24–0
DENQ1 4:203-6Punt24–0
LVQ1 2:511067Touchdown31–0
DENQ2 14:3600Punt31–0
DENQ2 14:3011Punt31–0
DENQ2 13:5326Punt31–0
LVQ2 13:04624Punt31–0
DENQ2 10:2929Turnover31–0
LVQ2 9:4649Touchdown38–0
DENQ2 7:5835Punt38–0
LVQ2 7:093-4Punt38–0
DENQ2 5:13968Touchdown38–7
LVQ2 1:56419End of half38–7
DENQ3 15:00440Touchdown38–14
LVQ3 13:341195Touchdown45–14
DENQ3 7:3342Punt51–14
LVQ3 5:39157Touchdown52–14
DENQ3 5:2833Punt52–14
LVQ3 4:26834Touchdown59–14
DENQ3 0:274-10Punt59–14
LVQ4 14:1436Punt59–14
DENQ4 11:5939Punt59–14
LVQ4 10:03530Punt59–14
DENQ4 6:54874Turnover on downs59–14
LVQ4 3:22314End of half59–14

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton12/2919821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno14533.80
Kyle Orton22110.50
Demaryius Thomas111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney49540
Brandon Lloyd13460
Knowshon Moreno36372
Eddie Royal27260
Demaryius Thomas1160
Dan Gronkowski0100
Eric Decker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

4.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.05

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.