2007 · Week 12

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB John Beck

0·3

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · dessograss · 60°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -15

Total

37.5

Model margin

+8.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.078EPA / play+0.055
  • 40.4%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.084EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.100
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -3.12CPOE+5.79
  • 37.0%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 1.36Points / drive2.10
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIA @ PIT15–28PIT
2022 · W7PIT @ MIA10–16MIA
2019 · W8MIA @ PIT14–27PIT
2016 · playoffsMIA @ PIT12–30PIT
2016 · W6PIT @ MIA15–30MIA
2013 · W14MIA @ PIT34–28MIA
2010 · W7PIT @ MIA23–22PIT
2009 · W17PIT @ MIA30–24PIT

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Beck14/2313200
Marty Booker0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jesse Chatman11171.50
Ricky Williams6152.50
Patrick Cobbs4102.50
John Beck188.00
Ted Ginn1-1-1.00

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger18/2116501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willie Parker24813.40
Najeh Davenport320.70
Ben Roethlisberger111.00
Nate Washington100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +157.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.65
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.23