Closing spread
PIT -15
Total
37.5
Model margin
+8.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.078EPA / play+0.055
- 40.4%Success rate41.8%
- -0.084EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- -3.12CPOE+5.79
- 37.0%Third-down rate47.9%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.36Points / drive2.10
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 42 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:30 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 8:21 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 3:01 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 14:48 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q2 12:31 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 11:01 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q2 8:24 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 5:20 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q2 2:05 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q3 9:54 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q3 5:58 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q3 3:55 | 5 | 22 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q3 0:29 | 11 | 46 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q4 11:19 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q4 6:22 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q4 4:13 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q4 0:17 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 0–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beck | 14/23 | 132 | 0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Chatman | 11 | 17 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| John Beck | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/21 | 165 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.23