Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
35
Model margin
+3.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.254EPA / play-0.088
- 36.7%Success rate38.9%
- -0.277EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- -5.63CPOE-5.47
- 31.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 0.92Points / drive1.27
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:07 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:05 | 7 | 39 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 6:44 | 10 | 35 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 1:29 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q2 15:00 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| SF | Q2 10:03 | 6 | 21 | Opp touchdown | 0–17 |
| SF | Q2 6:32 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q2 4:48 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–17 |
| SF | Q2 2:40 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q2 1:26 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| SF | Q2 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–17 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| SF | Q3 13:30 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| CAR | Q3 11:19 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| SF | Q3 9:46 | 3 | 30 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| CAR | Q3 8:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–17 |
| CAR | Q3 6:56 | 4 | 11 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| SF | Q3 4:52 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–24 |
| CAR | Q3 4:10 | 14 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| SF | Q4 10:26 | 5 | 38 | Turnover | 14–31 |
| CAR | Q4 8:31 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 14–31 |
| SF | Q4 5:57 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 14–31 |
| CAR | Q4 4:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–31 |
| SF | Q4 3:35 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–31 |
| CAR | Q4 3:27 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–31 |
| SF | Q4 1:48 | 6 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 14–31 |
| CAR | Q4 1:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 14/29 | 171 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 17/26 | 153 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 17 | 82 | 4.8 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 21 | 58 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.80