2010 · Week 7
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 23/40 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 5 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 5 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 8 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.31
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.