2010 · Week 7

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

17·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBears
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.097
  • 40.8%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.166
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -4.10CPOE+0.87
  • 29.2%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.43
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. CHI are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CHI @ WAS25–24CHI
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2023 · W5CHI @ WAS40–20CHI
2022 · W6WAS @ CHI12–7WAS
2019 · W3CHI @ WAS31–15CHI
2016 · W16WAS @ CHI41–21WAS
2015 · W14WAS @ CHI24–21WAS
2013 · W7CHI @ WAS41–45WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CHI
WASQ1 15:00433Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:5135Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:2230Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:013-9Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:11639Opp touchdown0–7
WASQ1 6:03972Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 1:083-1Punt7–7
WASQ2 14:50522Field goal10–7
CHIQ2 12:09418Punt10–7
WASQ2 10:2133Punt10–7
CHIQ2 9:4235Punt10–7
WASQ2 7:453-1Punt10–7
CHIQ2 6:4737Punt10–7
WASQ2 5:1039Punt10–7
CHIQ2 4:13959Touchdown10–14
WASQ2 0:2400End of half10–14
CHIQ3 15:00676Turnover10–14
WASQ3 11:42421Punt10–14
CHIQ3 9:0610Turnover10–14
WASQ3 9:0033Turnover10–14
CHIQ3 8:081065Opp touchdown17–14
CHIQ3 1:36859Turnover17–14
WASQ4 12:54558Turnover17–14
CHIQ4 10:1520Turnover17–14
WASQ4 10:0342Missed field goal17–14
CHIQ4 8:07410Punt17–14
WASQ4 6:12511Punt17–14
CHIQ4 3:31428Turnover17–14
WASQ4 2:16440End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb17/3220012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain211256.00
Keiland Williams100.00
Donovan McNabb5-2-0.40
Santana Moss1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss58631
Chris Cooley79520
Anthony Armstrong24420
Fred Davis23280
Mike Sellers13150
Joey Galloway0200
Ryan Torain0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler26/4028114

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte10414.10
Chester Taylor3206.70
Devin Hester252.50
Jay Cutler100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox612861
Earl Bennett45760
Greg Olsen36430
Matt Forte56320
Devin Hester58300
Chester Taylor22100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.57