2010 · Week 7
Final
Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.097
- 40.8%Success rate39.0%
- -0.045EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.166
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -4.10CPOE+0.87
- 29.2%Third-down rate33.1%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.31Points / drive1.43
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. CHI are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 17/32 | 200 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 21 | 125 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 5 | 8 | 63 | 1 |
| Chris Cooley | 7 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 26/40 | 281 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 6 | 12 | 86 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 4 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 5 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.57