Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play+0.095
- 47.5%Success rate47.2%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.182
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.067
- 10.7%Explosive rate6.7%
- +0.65CPOE+3.98
- 41.2%Third-down rate44.8%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.09Points / drive2.12
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 22/38 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 15 | 102 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 10 | 106 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 9 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/45 | 268 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hart | 12 | 84 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Javarris James | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 6 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| Anthony Gonzalez | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 12 | 39 | 1 |
| Mike Hart | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
48.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.36