2010 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

17·30

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -5.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • +0.107EPA / play+0.095
  • 47.5%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback+0.182
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.067
  • 10.7%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +0.65CPOE+3.98
  • 41.2%Third-down rate44.8%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.09Points / drive2.12
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
HOUQ1 15:0045Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:3530Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:10518Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:03778Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 6:59620Turnover on downs0–7
INDQ1 4:1163Punt0–13
HOUQ2 14:5110Opp touchdown0–14
HOUQ2 14:44431Field goal3–14
INDQ2 12:00834Punt3–14
HOUQ2 7:1439Punt3–14
INDQ2 5:521451Field goal3–17
HOUQ2 0:5336Punt3–17
INDQ2 0:1400End of half3–17
INDQ3 15:001070Touchdown3–24
HOUQ3 11:30759Touchdown10–24
INDQ3 7:401269Field goal10–27
HOUQ3 1:181064Touchdown17–27
INDQ4 12:22958Field goal17–30
HOUQ4 7:2331Punt17–30
INDQ4 5:3966Punt17–30
HOUQ4 3:501277Turnover17–30
INDQ4 0:5700End of half17–30

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub22/3820111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster151026.81
Derrick Ward252.50
Matt Schaub111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson7101061
Arian Foster99650
Derrick Ward2390
Owen Daniels1380
Jacoby Jones2560
Kevin Walter0500
Joel Dreessen0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning26/4526820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Hart12847.00
Donald Brown9161.80
Javarris James341.30
Peyton Manning430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon711780
Jacob Tamme69641
Anthony Gonzalez46550
Reggie Wayne412391
Mike Hart33190
Donald Brown22130
Gijon Robinson0100
Brody Eldridge0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

48.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.36