Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
43
Model margin
+2.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.042
- 41.7%Success rate44.3%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.191
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.81CPOE+0.88
- 40.4%Third-down rate39.8%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.34Points / drive1.45
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. CIN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 24/37 | 217 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | -7 | -2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 7 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Roberto Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 17/38 | 156 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 12 | 65 | 2 |
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.30