2010 · Week 8

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

22·14

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

43

Model margin

+2.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBengals
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.042
  • 41.7%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.191
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.81CPOE+0.88
  • 40.4%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.45
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–6 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CIN @ MIA31–24CIN
2025 · W16CIN @ MIA45–21CIN
2022 · W4MIA @ CIN15–27CIN
2020 · W13CIN @ MIA7–19MIA
2019 · W16CIN @ MIA35–38MIA
2018 · W5MIA @ CIN17–27CIN
2016 · W4MIA @ CIN7–22CIN
2013 · W9CIN @ MIA20–22MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CIN
CINQ1 15:001586Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 7:201150Field goal3–7
CINQ1 2:16739Punt3–7
MIAQ2 13:371048Field goal6–7
CINQ2 8:2030Punt6–7
MIAQ2 7:4438Punt6–7
CINQ2 6:11420Punt6–7
MIAQ2 3:4930Turnover6–13
CINQ2 2:52137Touchdown6–14
MIAQ2 2:45639Field goal9–14
CINQ2 0:5432Punt9–14
MIAQ2 0:21313Field goal12–14
MIAQ3 15:00419Punt12–14
CINQ3 12:3338Punt12–14
CINQ3 11:1438Punt12–14
MIAQ3 10:161567Field goal15–14
CINQ3 2:473-1Punt15–14
MIAQ3 1:493-1Punt15–14
CINQ3 0:4439Punt15–14
MIAQ4 14:04698Touchdown22–14
CINQ4 11:15512Punt22–14
MIAQ4 8:5837Punt22–14
CINQ4 7:051542Turnover22–14
MIAQ4 2:43213End of half22–14

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne24/3721701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown16613.80
Ricky Williams9475.21
Brian Hartline13030.00
Chad Henne3-7-2.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall57640
Davone Bess79530
Brian Hartline58530
Anthony Fasano36360
Ronnie Brown1270
Ricky Williams1120
Patrick Cobbs0100
Roberto Wallace0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer17/3815621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson20693.50
Bernard Scott22211.00
Carson Palmer3134.30
Brian Leonard122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens512652
Chad Johnson38340
Jordan Shipley36280
Jermaine Gresham38170
Cedric Benson33120
Brian Leonard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.30