Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.052
- 42.2%Success rate45.3%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.050
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.52CPOE+2.98
- 37.0%Third-down rate38.9%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.80Points / drive1.86
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. CIN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 15/25 | 189 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pead | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 3 | 74 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pead | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/31 | 296 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | -12 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 10 | 12 | 173 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.03