2016 · Week 4

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

7·22

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.0est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBengals
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.052
  • 42.2%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.050
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +4.52CPOE+2.98
  • 37.0%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.86
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–6 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CIN @ MIA31–24CIN
2025 · W16CIN @ MIA45–21CIN
2022 · W4MIA @ CIN15–27CIN
2020 · W13CIN @ MIA7–19MIA
2019 · W16CIN @ MIA35–38MIA
2018 · W5MIA @ CIN17–27CIN
2013 · W9CIN @ MIA20–22MIA
2012 · W5MIA @ CIN17–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CIN
CINQ1 15:001049Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 9:51281Touchdown7–3
CINQ1 9:0436Punt7–3
MIAQ1 7:3532Punt7–3
CINQ1 6:43790Touchdown7–10
MIAQ1 3:19515Punt7–10
CINQ1 1:0233Punt7–10
MIAQ2 14:1136Punt7–10
CINQ2 12:371380Field goal7–13
MIAQ2 4:12411Turnover7–13
CINQ2 2:07412Field goal7–16
MIAQ2 1:0637Punt7–16
CINQ2 0:1700End of half7–16
MIAQ3 15:00830Punt7–16
CINQ3 10:25865Field goal7–19
MIAQ3 6:0930Punt7–19
CINQ3 3:55944Field goal7–22
MIAQ4 13:3035Punt7–22
CINQ4 12:07613Punt7–22
MIAQ4 8:29760Turnover7–22
CINQ4 4:5334Punt7–22
MIAQ4 3:4045Turnover on downs7–22
CINQ4 1:5400End of half7–22

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill15/2518911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi6335.50
Kenyan Drake2157.50
Damien Williams294.50
Isaiah Pead351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills13741
Jarvis Landry710610
DeVante Parker23200
Jay Ajayi22130
Dion Sims1290
Isaiah Pead1160
Damien Williams1260
MarQueis Gray0100
Leonte Carroo0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/3129610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill21713.40
Giovani Bernard10181.80
Andy Dalton6-12-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green10121731
C.J. Uzomah45450
Brandon LaFell46440
Giovani Bernard34240
Tyler Boyd13100
Jeremy Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.03