2026 · Week 5

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

31·24

Dolphins

Miami

QB Malik Willis

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

CIN -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.046
  • 50.4%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.128
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +9.08CPOE-5.39
  • 53.9%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 66.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 2.60Points / drive1.82
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–6 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. MIA are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16CIN @ MIA45–21CIN
2022 · W4MIA @ CIN15–27CIN
2020 · W13CIN @ MIA7–19MIA
2019 · W16CIN @ MIA35–38MIA
2018 · W5MIA @ CIN17–27CIN
2016 · W4MIA @ CIN7–22CIN
2013 · W9CIN @ MIA20–22MIA
2012 · W5MIA @ CIN17–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–MIA
CINQ1 15:00310Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 14:031251Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 8:02623Punt7–7
MIAQ1 5:2831Punt7–7
CINQ1 4:271358Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 11:51322Turnover14–7
CINQ2 10:20639Turnover14–7
MIAQ2 6:4536Turnover14–7
CINQ2 5:15953Touchdown21–7
MIAQ2 0:55751End of half21–7
MIAQ3 15:0030Punt21–7
CINQ3 13:03515Punt21–7
MIAQ3 10:371059Field goal21–10
CINQ3 5:13777Touchdown28–10
MIAQ3 0:391485Touchdown28–18
CINQ4 7:131032Punt28–18
MIAQ4 2:392-5Turnover28–18
CINQ4 2:2832Field goal31–18
MIAQ4 2:09761Touchdown31–24
CINQ4 0:4500End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow23/3219040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine14684.90
Chase Brown13393.00
Joe Burrow4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase610771
Erick All33250
Tee Higgins24220
Chase Brown34210
Tanner Hudson33141
Dohnte Meyers22120
Samaje Perine22101
Drew Sample1150
Mike Gesicki1241

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis15/2713712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ollie Gordon II18884.91
Malik Willis8749.31
Chris Bell12626.00
Malik Washington11818.00
Jaylen Wright6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Washington68430
Greg Dulcich45370
Kevin Coleman Jr.37301
Jalen Tolbert12220
Will Kacmarek1250
Chris Bell0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.72