2025 · Week 16

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

45·21

Dolphins

Miami

QB Quinn Ewers

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-4.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.012EPA / play-0.021
  • 46.4%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.012EPA / dropback-0.016
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.028
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.28CPOE+1.82
  • 44.3%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.92
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–6 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. MIA are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CIN @ MIA31–24CIN
2022 · W4MIA @ CIN15–27CIN
2020 · W13CIN @ MIA7–19MIA
2019 · W16CIN @ MIA35–38MIA
2018 · W5MIA @ CIN17–27CIN
2016 · W4MIA @ CIN7–22CIN
2013 · W9CIN @ MIA20–22MIA
2012 · W5MIA @ CIN17–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–MIA
CINQ1 15:0067Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:10633Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:58791Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 3:57365Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 2:2538Punt7–7
MIAQ2 14:53726Punt7–7
CINQ2 11:431058Field goal10–7
MIAQ2 6:01765Touchdown10–14
CINQ2 2:24751Touchdown17–14
MIAQ2 1:2435Punt17–14
CINQ2 0:3916End of half17–14
MIAQ3 15:00416Turnover17–14
CINQ3 13:02634Touchdown24–14
MIAQ3 9:4330Turnover24–14
CINQ3 9:19235Touchdown31–14
MIAQ3 8:32628Turnover on downs31–14
CINQ3 5:19653Touchdown38–14
MIAQ3 2:2510Turnover38–14
CINQ3 2:12752Touchdown45–14
MIAQ4 13:32310Punt45–14
CINQ4 11:2236Punt45–14
MIAQ4 9:10997Touchdown45–21
CINQ4 3:4336Punt45–21
MIAQ4 1:47744End of half45–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow25/3230940
Joe Flacco1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown12665.51
Samaje Perine7253.61
Tahj Brooks471.80
Joe Burrow263.00
Ke'Shawn Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase9111090
Tee Higgins33531
Chase Brown44432
Mike Gesicki34351
Drew Sample22310
Andrei Iosivas11210
Samaje Perine23160
Tanner Hudson1140
Cam Grandy1110
Mitchell Tinsley0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quinn Ewers20/3026002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane15815.41
Jaylen Wright9353.91
Malik Washington199.01
Quinn Ewers252.50
Ollie Gordon II1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle59720
Greg Dulcich33460
Darren Waller35400
Theo Wease Jr.24320
Malik Washington11230
Jaylen Wright12180
Cedrick Wilson Jr.11110
De'Von Achane3390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.6%3.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

37.2%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.01
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-4.50