Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-4.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play-0.021
- 46.4%Success rate42.1%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.016
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.028
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.28CPOE+1.82
- 44.3%Third-down rate34.1%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.93Points / drive1.92
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/32 | 309 | 4 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Tahj Brooks | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9 | 11 | 109 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Cam Grandy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Ewers | 20/30 | 260 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Jaylen Wright | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Quinn Ewers | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Theo Wease Jr. | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-5.01
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-4.50