Closing spread
CIN -1.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.076
- 40.3%Success rate41.5%
- -0.076EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.268
- 8.1%Explosive rate6.3%
- -5.27CPOE-2.66
- 36.0%Third-down rate35.1%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.62
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 33/56 | 396 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 21 | 50 | 2.4 | 0 |
| John Ross | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 9 | 15 | 128 | 2 |
| John Ross | 6 | 13 | 84 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 4 | 8 | 57 | 1 |
| Alex Erickson | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 31/52 | 419 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Patrick Laird | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| De'Lance Turner | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 15 | 111 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 6 | 12 | 82 | 2 |
| Albert Wilson | 7 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Clive Walford | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45