2019 · Week 16

Final / OT

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

35·38

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CIN -1.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.076
  • 40.3%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback+0.002
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.268
  • 8.1%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -5.27CPOE-2.66
  • 36.0%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.62
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–6 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. MIA are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CIN @ MIA31–24CIN
2025 · W16CIN @ MIA45–21CIN
2022 · W4MIA @ CIN15–27CIN
2020 · W13CIN @ MIA7–19MIA
2018 · W5MIA @ CIN17–27CIN
2016 · W4MIA @ CIN7–22CIN
2013 · W9CIN @ MIA20–22MIA
2012 · W5MIA @ CIN17–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001285Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 8:3231Punt0–7
MIAQ1 6:54775Touchdown0–14
CINQ1 5:0032Punt0–14
MIAQ1 3:2537Punt0–14
CINQ1 2:181173Field goal3–14
MIAQ2 10:4936Punt3–14
CINQ2 9:1637Punt3–14
MIAQ2 7:4630Punt3–14
CINQ2 6:4735Punt3–14
MIAQ2 5:08687Touchdown3–21
CINQ2 2:203-2Punt3–21
MIAQ2 1:48524Punt3–21
CINQ2 0:53839Field goal6–21
MIAQ2 0:0200End of half6–21
CINQ3 15:00413Punt6–21
MIAQ3 12:581068Touchdown6–28
CINQ3 8:241080Touchdown12–28
MIAQ3 3:38514Turnover12–28
CINQ3 1:2645Turnover12–28
MIAQ3 0:151038Touchdown12–35
CINQ4 11:121077Touchdown19–35
MIAQ4 6:11937Missed field goal19–35
CINQ4 3:071558Touchdown27–35
MIAQ4 0:2900Touchdown27–35
CINQ4 0:28354Touchdown35–35
MIAOT421Punt35–35
CINOT39Punt35–35
MIAOT3-10Punt35–35
CINOT39Punt35–35
MIAOT656Field goal35–38

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton33/5639640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon21502.40
John Ross263.00
Giovani Bernard231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd9151282
John Ross613840
Tyler Eifert48571
Alex Erickson69550
C.J. Uzomah44371
Joe Mixon22230
Giovani Bernard23120

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick31/5241941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin16553.41
Patrick Laird8172.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick591.80
Albert Wilson199.00
De'Lance Turner461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker5151111
Mike Gesicki612822
Albert Wilson77790
Isaiah Ford56680
Allen Hurns22410
Durham Smythe22180
Clive Walford12150
Myles Gaskin1330
Patrick Laird1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.45