Closing spread
MIA -10.5
Total
43
Model margin
+7.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.026
- 44.2%Success rate46.8%
- +0.005EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.122EPA / rush-0.124
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- +0.03CPOE+1.23
- 37.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.87Points / drive1.99
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 11/19 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Finley | 6/7 | 40 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 4 | 72 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 7 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Schreck | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 26/39 | 296 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 9 | 11 | 88 | 1 |
| Myles Gaskin | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.24
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.22