2020 · Week 13

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Brandon Allen

7·19

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIA -10.5

Total

43

Model margin

+7.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.026
  • 44.2%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.122EPA / rush-0.124
  • 6.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +0.03CPOE+1.23
  • 37.1%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.99
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–6 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. MIA are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CIN @ MIA31–24CIN
2025 · W16CIN @ MIA45–21CIN
2022 · W4MIA @ CIN15–27CIN
2019 · W16CIN @ MIA35–38MIA
2018 · W5MIA @ CIN17–27CIN
2016 · W4MIA @ CIN7–22CIN
2013 · W9CIN @ MIA20–22MIA
2012 · W5MIA @ CIN17–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–MIA
CINQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:1436Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:37726Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 6:53516Punt0–0
CINQ1 4:40380Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 3:201351Field goal7–3
CINQ2 11:4235Punt7–3
MIAQ2 9:28643Punt7–3
CINQ2 7:001243Missed field goal7–3
MIAQ2 0:58427Field goal7–6
MIAQ3 15:00880Touchdown7–13
CINQ3 11:3536Punt7–13
MIAQ3 9:43970Field goal7–16
CINQ3 5:333-10Punt7–16
MIAQ3 3:521146Field goal7–19
CINQ4 13:213-1Punt7–19
MIAQ4 11:43424Punt7–19
CINQ4 9:597-2Punt7–19
MIAQ4 5:40333Turnover7–19
CINQ4 3:52632Turnover7–19
MIAQ4 1:44312End of half7–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Allen11/1915311
Ryan Finley6/74001
Tyler Boyd0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard12302.50
Samaje Perine372.30
Brandon Allen231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd14721
Tee Higgins58560
Drew Sample77490
Alex Erickson23170
A.J. Green0100
Brandon Allen0100
Mason Schreck0100
Giovani Bernard22-10

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa26/3929610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin21904.30
Lynn Bowden11111.00
Patrick Laird362.00
Tua Tagovailoa331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki911881
Myles Gaskin22510
Jakeem Grant26420
Lynn Bowden44410
DeVante Parker48350
Durham Smythe22160
Patrick Laird23160
Mack Hollins1170
Adam Shaheen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.9%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.24
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.22