Closing spread
CIN -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.081
- 44.6%Success rate47.8%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.064
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.08CPOE+2.74
- 37.6%Third-down rate47.3%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 2.11Points / drive2.27
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. CIN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 14/23 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 8/14 | 110 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 10 | 14 | 160 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 20/31 | 287 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1/1 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 24 | 61 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 9 | 124 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Asiasi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.48