2022 · Week 4

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

15·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

CIN -4

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBengals
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.081
  • 44.6%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.064
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.08CPOE+2.74
  • 37.6%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.27
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–6 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CIN @ MIA31–24CIN
2025 · W16CIN @ MIA45–21CIN
2020 · W13CIN @ MIA7–19MIA
2019 · W16CIN @ MIA35–38MIA
2018 · W5MIA @ CIN17–27CIN
2016 · W4MIA @ CIN7–22CIN
2013 · W9CIN @ MIA20–22MIA
2012 · W5MIA @ CIN17–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CIN
CINQ1 15:00955Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 10:19870Field goal3–7
CINQ1 6:05614Punt3–7
MIAQ1 3:36526Turnover3–7
CINQ1 1:061047Turnover on downs3–7
MIAQ2 10:39927Field goal6–7
CINQ2 7:3135Punt6–7
MIAQ2 6:3849Missed field goal6–7
CINQ2 4:22358Touchdown6–14
MIAQ2 2:50965Touchdown12–14
CINQ2 0:0900End of half12–14
MIAQ3 15:0030Punt12–14
CINQ3 13:3058Punt12–14
MIAQ3 10:1138Punt12–14
CINQ3 8:01420Punt12–14
MIAQ3 6:18688Field goal15–14
CINQ3 2:40984Field goal15–17
MIAQ4 12:0038Punt15–17
CINQ4 9:49738Field goal15–20
MIAQ4 6:13847Turnover15–20
CINQ4 3:05545Touchdown15–27
MIAQ4 1:52630Turnover on downs15–27
CINQ4 0:5300End of half15–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater14/2319311
Tua Tagovailoa8/1411001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert15694.60
Teddy Bridgewater11111.00
Chase Edmonds561.20
Tyreek Hill1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill10141600
Trent Sherfield46550
Jaylen Waddle25390
Mike Gesicki24230
Chase Edmonds23141
Raheem Mostert23120
River Cracraft0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow20/3128720
Tyler Boyd1/12300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon24612.51
Joe Burrow561.20
Samaje Perine100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins791241
Ja'Marr Chase46810
Tyler Boyd25470
Hayden Hurst34271
Mitchell Wilcox11180
Joe Mixon44130
Samaje Perine0100
Devin Asiasi0100
Chris Evans0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.48