Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
42
Model margin
-1.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.040
- 43.4%Success rate41.1%
- +0.109EPA / dropback+0.009
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.138
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- +1.24CPOE-0.18
- 41.9%Third-down rate35.5%
- 73.3%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.76Points / drive1.51
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. MIA are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 32/53 | 338 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 9 | 79 | 8.8 | 2 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 11 | 19 | 128 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 6 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/28 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 16 | 105 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Egnew | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.07