2013 · Week 9

Final / OT

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

20·22

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

42

Model margin

-1.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.040
  • 43.4%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.109EPA / dropback+0.009
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.138
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +1.24CPOE-0.18
  • 41.9%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 73.3%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.51
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–6 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. MIA are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CIN @ MIA31–24CIN
2025 · W16CIN @ MIA45–21CIN
2022 · W4MIA @ CIN15–27CIN
2020 · W13CIN @ MIA7–19MIA
2019 · W16CIN @ MIA35–38MIA
2018 · W5MIA @ CIN17–27CIN
2016 · W4MIA @ CIN7–22CIN
2012 · W5MIA @ CIN17–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0056Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:1239Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:29520Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:14511Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 4:2339Missed field goal0–0
CINQ1 2:531363Field goal3–0
MIAQ2 11:56569Turnover3–0
CINQ2 9:4836Punt3–0
MIAQ2 8:301193Touchdown3–7
CINQ2 2:39633Punt3–7
MIAQ2 1:1438Punt3–7
CINQ2 0:45320Turnover3–7
MIAQ2 0:28422Field goal3–10
CINQ2 0:0600End of half3–10
CINQ3 15:001583Opp touchdown3–17
CINQ3 7:371265Touchdown10–17
MIAQ3 2:10413Punt10–17
CINQ4 14:52470Touchdown17–17
MIAQ4 12:37423Punt17–17
CINQ4 9:49844Turnover17–17
MIAQ4 4:56415Punt17–17
CINQ4 3:07835Field goal20–17
MIAQ4 1:24850Field goal20–20
CINQ4 0:1100End of half20–20
MIAOT39Punt20–20
CINOT836Punt20–20
MIAOT48Punt20–20
CINOT3-8Safety20–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton32/5333803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard9798.82
BenJarvus Green-Ellis21723.40
Andy Dalton5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green11191280
Marvin Jones47660
Mohamed Sanu69620
Jermaine Gresham37330
Giovani Bernard44250
Tyler Eifert34140
Andrew Hawkins12100
Dane Sanzenbacher0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/2820800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller161056.60
Daniel Thomas12383.20
Charles Clay11313.00
Ryan Tannehill111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace68820
Brian Hartline35390
Rishard Matthews24240
Lamar Miller44240
Charles Clay33220
Michael Egnew11130
Daniel Thomas1240
Marcus Thigpen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.07