2018 · Week 5

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

17·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 87°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CIN -6

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBengals
  • -0.111EPA / play+0.013
  • 40.1%Success rate43.6%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.105
  • 7.7%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -0.24CPOE-3.54
  • 30.3%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 65.0%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.95
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 7–6 since 1999

CIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. CIN are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CIN @ MIA31–24CIN
2025 · W16CIN @ MIA45–21CIN
2022 · W4MIA @ CIN15–27CIN
2020 · W13CIN @ MIA7–19MIA
2019 · W16CIN @ MIA35–38MIA
2016 · W4MIA @ CIN7–22CIN
2013 · W9CIN @ MIA20–22MIA
2012 · W5MIA @ CIN17–13MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–CIN
MIAQ1 15:00728Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:361277Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 5:07516Punt0–0
CINQ1 2:52832Punt0–0
MIAQ2 13:3013100Touchdown7–0
CINQ2 7:22656Missed field goal7–0
MIAQ2 3:54531Punt7–0
CINQ2 1:1534Opp touchdown14–0
CINQ2 0:2300End of half14–0
CINQ3 15:003-9Punt14–0
MIAQ3 12:50513Field goal17–0
CINQ3 9:25742Field goal17–3
MIAQ3 5:0739Punt17–3
CINQ3 3:24961Touchdown17–10
MIAQ4 14:54514Opp touchdown17–17
MIAQ4 11:43730Punt17–17
CINQ4 7:30867Field goal17–20
MIAQ4 3:303-2Opp touchdown17–27
MIAQ4 2:37620Turnover17–27
CINQ4 1:3533Punt17–27
MIAQ4 0:32438End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/3518512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore12635.30
Kenyan Drake6467.70
Ryan Tannehill3175.70
Kalen Ballage122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenyan Drake711691
Albert Wilson56430
Danny Amendola34300
Mike Gesicki35260
Kenny Stills25170
Jakeem Grant0100
Durham Smythe0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton20/3024811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon22934.20
Andy Dalton4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green6101120
Tyler Boyd47440
C.J. Uzomah22430
Alex Erickson33240
Joe Mixon34221
Mark Walton2330
Tyler Kroft0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.05