Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play+0.013
- 40.1%Success rate43.6%
- -0.100EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.105
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.24CPOE-3.54
- 30.3%Third-down rate36.9%
- 65.0%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.45Points / drive1.95
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. CIN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/35 | 185 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 7 | 11 | 69 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 20/30 | 248 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 22 | 93 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 6 | 10 | 112 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Mark Walton | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.05