2010 · Week 8
Final
University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
38
Model margin
-1.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.220
- 42.0%Success rate37.1%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.248
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.165
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.31CPOE-9.59
- 42.5%Third-down rate27.4%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.06
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–4 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. ARI are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 18/25 | 278 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 22 | 120 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Josh Freeman | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 4 | 6 | 105 | 1 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 1 | 53 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Purvis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 16/24 | 234 | 1 | 2 |
| Max Hall | 8/16 | 71 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Max Hall | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 8 | 11 | 147 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 12 | 72 | 2 |
| Early Doucet | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.66