2010 · Week 8

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

38·35

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Max Hall

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

38

Model margin

-1.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.220
  • 42.0%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.248
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.165
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.31CPOE-9.59
  • 42.5%Third-down rate27.4%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.06
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–4 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. ARI are 7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ARI @ TB17–20TB
2022 · W16TB @ ARI19–16TB
2019 · W10ARI @ TB27–30TB
2017 · W6TB @ ARI33–38ARI
2016 · W2TB @ ARI7–40ARI
2013 · W4ARI @ TB13–10ARI
2007 · W9ARI @ TB10–17TB
2004 · W17TB @ ARI7–12ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:3733Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:03961Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 6:2538Punt0–7
ARIQ1 4:562-5Opp touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 4:1533Punt7–7
TBQ1 2:4141Punt7–7
ARIQ1 0:30615Punt7–7
ARIQ2 12:20416Touchdown7–14
TBQ2 10:17380Touchdown14–14
ARIQ2 8:59415Opp touchdown21–14
ARIQ2 6:33652Turnover on downs21–14
TBQ2 3:151292Field goal24–14
TBQ3 15:00620Punt24–14
ARIQ3 10:52537Punt24–14
TBQ3 9:22880Touchdown31–14
ARIQ3 4:35776Touchdown31–21
TBQ3 0:5616Opp touchdown31–28
TBQ3 0:3355Punt31–28
ARIQ4 11:37448Touchdown31–35
TBQ4 9:41774Touchdown38–35
ARIQ4 5:1310Turnover38–35
TBQ4 5:013-13Missed field goal38–35
ARIQ4 3:16622Turnover38–35
TBQ4 2:10451Punt38–35
ARIQ4 0:55539End of half38–35

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman18/2527810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount221205.52
Josh Freeman22211.00
Cadillac Williams4102.50
Earnest Graham122.00
Arrelious Benn100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams461051
Micheal Spurlock33600
Arrelious Benn11530
Cadillac Williams35260
John Gilmore12110
LeGarrette Blount2290
Kellen Winslow1250
Ryan Purvis1150
Earnest Graham1120
Maurice Stovall1220

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson16/2423412
Max Hall8/167112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells16503.11
LaRod Stephens-Howling44110.31
Steve Breaston11414.00
Tim Hightower100.00
Max Hall1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Breaston8111470
Larry Fitzgerald612722
Early Doucet45390
Jason Wright34190
Chris Wells12140
Tim Hightower11110
Stephen Spach1130
Ben Patrick0100
LaRod Stephens-Howling0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.66