2025 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

17·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.014EPA / play+0.006
  • 43.0%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.064
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.087
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.10CPOE-2.55
  • 41.6%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.89
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–4 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. TB are 2-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W16TB @ ARI19–16TB
2019 · W10ARI @ TB27–30TB
2017 · W6TB @ ARI33–38ARI
2016 · W2TB @ ARI7–40ARI
2013 · W4ARI @ TB13–10ARI
2010 · W8TB @ ARI38–35TB
2007 · W9ARI @ TB10–17TB
2004 · W17TB @ ARI7–12ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–TB
TBQ1 15:00636Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:301173Turnover0–0
TBQ1 3:39713Punt0–0
ARIQ2 14:5037Punt0–0
TBQ2 13:15958Field goal0–3
ARIQ2 8:023-10Punt0–3
TBQ2 6:101270Touchdown0–10
ARIQ2 1:36656Field goal3–10
ARIQ3 15:00215Turnover3–10
TBQ3 14:034-2Punt3–10
ARIQ3 12:49965Missed field goal3–10
TBQ3 7:46767Touchdown3–17
ARIQ3 3:56672Touchdown10–17
TBQ3 0:31425Punt10–17
ARIQ4 13:57727Turnover on downs10–17
TBQ4 10:3930Field goal10–20
ARIQ4 8:58973Touchdown17–20
TBQ4 4:58616Punt17–20
ARIQ4 1:4948Turnover on downs17–20
TBQ4 0:5200End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett29/4030121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bam Knight11625.60
Michael Carter5173.40
Jacoby Brissett3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Trey McBride89821
Marvin Harrison Jr.67690
Michael Carter56470
Bam Knight33361
Michael Wilson37360
Elijah Higgins22170
Greg Dortch22140
Xavier Weaver0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield18/2819410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving17613.61
Baker Mayfield6274.50
Rachaad White273.50
Sean Tucker200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.35780
Emeka Egbuka48420
Rachaad White33220
Bucky Irving22200
Payne Durham11110
Cade Otton2290
Sterling Shepard1250
Tez Johnson1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.07