2025 · Week 13
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.006
- 43.0%Success rate43.3%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.087
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.10CPOE-2.55
- 41.6%Third-down rate41.0%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.89
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–4 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. TB are 2-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 29/40 | 301 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 8 | 9 | 82 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 6 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Xavier Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/28 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.07