2004 · Week 17

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Chris Simms

7·12

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh McCown

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

ARI -4

Total

38.5

Model margin

+7.0est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.097
  • 42.6%Success rate38.1%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback-0.074
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.128
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • 37.9%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.19
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.089EPA / play allowed-0.081

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–4 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. ARI are 7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ARI @ TB17–20TB
2022 · W16TB @ ARI19–16TB
2019 · W10ARI @ TB27–30TB
2017 · W6TB @ ARI33–38ARI
2016 · W2TB @ ARI7–40ARI
2013 · W4ARI @ TB13–10ARI
2010 · W8TB @ ARI38–35TB
2007 · W9ARI @ TB10–17TB

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Simms16/3222412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman16503.10
Earnest Graham11212.00
Chris Simms310.30

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown16/3611501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith23693.00
Obafemi Ayanbadejo6315.20
Josh Scobey188.00
Larry Fitzgerald210.50
Josh McCown2-2-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.3%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.39
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.96