2004 · Week 17
Final
Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
ARI -4
Total
38.5
Model margin
+7.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.097
- 42.6%Success rate38.1%
- +0.008EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- 37.9%Third-down rate34.7%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.25Points / drive1.19
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.089EPA / play allowed-0.081
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–4 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. ARI are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:21 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 9:06 | 11 | 44 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 4:36 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 2:12 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 0:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 14:37 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q2 10:03 | 10 | 35 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 5:10 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q2 2:53 | 6 | 8 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 1:46 | 4 | 27 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q2 0:43 | 5 | 12 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| TB | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TB | Q3 13:22 | 9 | 48 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q3 8:36 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TB | Q3 4:47 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q3 4:01 | 4 | 12 | Missed field goal | 6–6 |
| TB | Q3 1:39 | 1 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| ARI | Q3 1:24 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| TB | Q4 11:07 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 7–9 |
| ARI | Q4 10:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–9 |
| TB | Q4 8:02 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| ARI | Q4 7:55 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 7–12 |
| TB | Q4 6:12 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–12 |
| ARI | Q4 5:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–12 |
| TB | Q4 3:20 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 7–12 |
| ARI | Q4 2:00 | 3 | -3 | Missed field goal | 7–12 |
| TB | Q4 1:06 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–12 |
| ARI | Q4 0:56 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Simms | 16/32 | 224 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Chris Simms | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 16/36 | 115 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 23 | 69 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Josh Scobey | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.3%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.96