2022 · Week 16

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

19·16

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Trace McSorley

State Farm Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

TB -7.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-2.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.030EPA / play-0.081
  • 44.0%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.084
  • 6.5%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +0.30CPOE-1.70
  • 38.1%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.60
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–4 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. ARI are 7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ARI @ TB17–20TB
2019 · W10ARI @ TB27–30TB
2017 · W6TB @ ARI33–38ARI
2016 · W2TB @ ARI7–40ARI
2013 · W4ARI @ TB13–10ARI
2010 · W8TB @ ARI38–35TB
2007 · W9ARI @ TB10–17TB
2004 · W17TB @ ARI7–12ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ARI
TBQ1 15:00525Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 13:231245Turnover3–0
TBQ1 7:38413Turnover on downs3–0
ARIQ1 5:37412Punt3–0
TBQ1 3:59414Punt3–0
ARIQ1 1:47423Field goal3–3
TBQ1 0:321673Field goal6–3
ARIQ2 8:143-1Punt6–3
TBQ2 7:14419Turnover6–3
ARIQ2 5:09512Punt6–3
TBQ2 3:02521Punt6–3
ARIQ2 1:07835Field goal6–6
TBQ2 0:0800End of half6–6
ARIQ3 15:0038Punt6–6
TBQ3 13:0538Punt6–6
ARIQ3 11:36416Punt6–6
TBQ3 9:381039Turnover6–6
ARIQ3 3:08860Field goal6–9
TBQ4 14:0738Punt6–9
ARIQ4 12:26533Touchdown6–16
TBQ4 10:47767Touchdown13–16
ARIQ4 8:03633Turnover13–16
TBQ4 4:49831Field goal16–16
ARIQ4 2:2749Punt16–16
TBQ4 1:3638Punt16–16
ARIQ4 0:43429Turnover16–16
ARIOT611Punt16–16
TBOT871Field goal19–16

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady32/4828112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette20723.60
Rachaad White7365.10
Ke'Shawn Vaughn166.00
Tom Brady210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leonard Fournette910900
Russell Gage56650
Chris Godwin Jr.810630
Mike Evans38290
Rachaad White44171
Cade Otton27120
Julio Jones1250
Scott Miller0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trace McSorley24/4521701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner15795.31
Greg Dortch3258.30
Trace McSorley7142.00
Keaontay Ingram122.00
Marquise Brown111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Dortch1011980
Marquise Brown36570
James Conner78410
Trey McBride34170
DeAndre Hopkins11040
Stephen Anderson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.8%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.63
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.73