2022 · Week 16
Final / OT
State Farm Stadium · open · grass
Closing spread
TB -7.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.081
- 44.0%Success rate40.7%
- +0.052EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.084
- 6.5%Explosive rate6.3%
- +0.30CPOE-1.70
- 38.1%Third-down rate35.4%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.63Points / drive1.60
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–4 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. ARI are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/48 | 281 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 10 | 90 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 8 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trace McSorley | 24/45 | 217 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Trace McSorley | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dortch | 10 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| James Conner | 7 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 10 | 4 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.8%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.63
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.73