2013 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+0.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.089
- 41.6%Success rate37.6%
- +0.035EPA / dropback-0.049
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.147
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +3.74CPOE-1.72
- 35.3%Third-down rate31.1%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.71Points / drive1.34
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–4 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. TB are 2-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/38 | 248 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 9 | 68 | 1 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 24/43 | 193 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 27 | 45 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Demps | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Wright | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 5 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 11 | 27 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Demps | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike James | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.19