2013 · Week 4

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

13·10

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+0.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.020EPA / play-0.089
  • 41.6%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback-0.049
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.147
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +3.74CPOE-1.72
  • 35.3%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.34
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–4 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. TB are 2-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ARI @ TB17–20TB
2022 · W16TB @ ARI19–16TB
2019 · W10ARI @ TB27–30TB
2017 · W6TB @ ARI33–38ARI
2016 · W2TB @ ARI7–40ARI
2010 · W8TB @ ARI38–35TB
2007 · W9ARI @ TB10–17TB
2004 · W17TB @ ARI7–12ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–TB
ARIQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:3460Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:29423Turnover0–0
TBQ1 8:43641Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 6:1739Punt0–7
TBQ1 4:26519Punt0–7
ARIQ1 1:4339Punt0–7
TBQ1 0:15727Punt0–7
ARIQ2 11:16542Punt0–7
TBQ2 8:3967Punt0–7
ARIQ2 5:4331Punt0–7
TBQ2 4:501351Field goal0–10
ARIQ2 0:2734Punt0–10
TBQ2 0:0500End of half0–10
TBQ3 15:00641Punt0–10
ARIQ3 11:571492Turnover0–10
TBQ3 4:1641Punt0–10
ARIQ3 3:21533Turnover0–10
TBQ3 1:04714Turnover0–10
ARIQ4 13:30526Field goal3–10
TBQ4 11:16737Punt3–10
ARIQ4 6:03728Punt3–10
TBQ4 4:0424Turnover9–10
ARIQ4 3:12113Touchdown10–10
TBQ4 3:063-9Punt10–10
ARIQ4 1:56419Field goal13–10
TBQ4 1:29421Turnover13–10
ARIQ4 0:4800End of half13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer21/3824812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington4297.30
Rashard Mendenhall12211.80
Carson Palmer461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd510870
Larry Fitzgerald69681
Rob Housler12230
Andre Ellington36220
Jaron Brown12190
Rashard Mendenhall34130
Jim Dray11100
Andre Roberts1260
Alfonso Smith0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon24/4319312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin27451.70
Jeff Demps11414.00
Mike Glennon2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Timothy Wright56410
Mike Williams46381
Kevin Ogletree59300
Vincent Jackson211270
Doug Martin34160
Brian Leonard22110
Jeff Demps1180
Mike James1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.19