2007 · Week 9
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play-0.004
- 42.9%Success rate41.9%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.38CPOE+2.62
- 36.9%Third-down rate39.3%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.68Points / drive1.64
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–4 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. TB are 2-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 59 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:17 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q1 5:56 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| TB | Q1 4:45 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q1 0:25 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| TB | Q2 14:49 | 3 | 13 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 13:37 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 12:19 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 9:07 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 8:06 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 6:29 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 3:47 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 1:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 1:03 | 4 | 22 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| ARI | Q3 10:33 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TB | Q3 8:46 | 18 | 86 | Missed field goal | 3–17 |
| ARI | Q4 11:47 | 12 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| TB | Q4 7:30 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 10–17 |
| ARI | Q4 3:31 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–17 |
| TB | Q4 3:04 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–17 |
| ARI | Q4 2:39 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| TB | Q4 2:31 | 2 | 20 | End of half | 10–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 10/30 | 172 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 18/28 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 34 | 124 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.86