2016 · Week 2
Final
University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
ARI -7.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.005
- 43.9%Success rate45.3%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.093
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.81CPOE-0.78
- 44.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.74Points / drive1.89
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–4 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. ARI are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 27/52 | 243 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 18 | 70 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 17/30 | 304 | 3 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1/4 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 3 | 5 | 98 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 2 | 78 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.40