2016 · Week 2

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

7·40

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -7.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.005
  • 43.9%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.093
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.81CPOE-0.78
  • 44.2%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 62.7%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.89
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–4 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. ARI are 7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ARI @ TB17–20TB
2022 · W16TB @ ARI19–16TB
2019 · W10ARI @ TB27–30TB
2017 · W6TB @ ARI33–38ARI
2013 · W4ARI @ TB13–10ARI
2010 · W8TB @ ARI38–35TB
2007 · W9ARI @ TB10–17TB
2004 · W17TB @ ARI7–12ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00511Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:10634Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 10:28518Punt0–0
TBQ1 8:49829Punt0–0
ARIQ1 5:061163Touchdown0–7
TBQ2 14:5421Turnover0–7
ARIQ2 14:05514Field goal0–10
TBQ2 11:44817Punt0–10
ARIQ2 7:3139Punt0–10
TBQ2 5:23519Turnover0–10
ARIQ2 3:06868Touchdown0–17
TBQ2 1:3030Punt0–17
ARIQ2 1:05584Touchdown0–24
TBQ2 0:202-7End of half0–24
TBQ3 15:001285Touchdown7–24
ARIQ3 10:01453Field goal7–27
TBQ3 7:56744Opp touchdown7–33
TBQ3 5:03749Missed field goal7–33
ARIQ3 1:58865Touchdown7–40
TBQ4 12:11516Punt7–40
ARIQ4 9:4233Punt7–40
TBQ4 8:42511Punt7–40
ARIQ4 7:35622Punt7–40
TBQ4 3:48413Punt7–40
ARIQ4 2:5736Punt7–40
TBQ4 1:044-4Turnover7–40

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston27/5224314

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers22914.50
Charles Sims9242.70
Doug Martin7233.30
Jameis Winston393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans618701
Adam Humphries68670
Vincent Jackson49440
Russell Shepard22160
Cameron Brate34160
Austin Seferian-Jenkins22140
Cecil Shorts12120
Charles Sims3540
Jacquizz Rodgers0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer17/3030430
Drew Stanton1/41100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson16543.41
David Johnson12453.80
Larry Fitzgerald144.00
Andre Ellington122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Johnson35980
Jaron Brown22781
Larry Fitzgerald510771
Darren Fells45310
John Brown13140
Andre Ellington1190
Michael Floyd2681
Jermaine Gresham0100
Troy Niklas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.40