2017 · Week 6

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

33·38

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.129
  • 44.2%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.090EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.207
  • 6.5%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +3.38CPOE-4.25
  • 42.9%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.20
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–4 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. ARI are 7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ARI @ TB17–20TB
2022 · W16TB @ ARI19–16TB
2019 · W10ARI @ TB27–30TB
2016 · W2TB @ ARI7–40ARI
2013 · W4ARI @ TB13–10ARI
2010 · W8TB @ ARI38–35TB
2007 · W9ARI @ TB10–17TB
2004 · W17TB @ ARI7–12ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 11:52627Punt0–7
ARIQ1 9:02786Touchdown0–14
TBQ1 5:24641Punt0–14
ARIQ1 1:08890Touchdown0–21
TBQ2 12:0430Punt0–21
ARIQ2 11:331053Field goal0–24
TBQ2 5:311570Turnover on downs0–24
ARIQ2 0:0600End of half0–24
TBQ3 15:0020Turnover0–24
ARIQ3 14:09433Touchdown0–31
TBQ3 11:58875Touchdown6–31
ARIQ3 8:27216Turnover6–31
TBQ3 7:3544Punt6–31
ARIQ3 5:05613Punt6–31
TBQ3 1:22663Touchdown12–31
ARIQ4 13:3224Opp touchdown20–31
ARIQ4 12:561161Punt20–31
TBQ4 7:2810Turnover20–37
ARIQ4 7:2211Touchdown20–38
TBQ4 7:171264Touchdown26–38
ARIQ4 3:0200Turnover on downs26–38
ARIQ4 3:0214Turnover on downs26–38
ARIQ4 2:5530Turnover on downs26–38
TBQ4 2:34370Touchdown33–38
ARIQ4 2:0200End of half33–38

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick22/3229032
Jameis Winston5/106100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin14533.81
Ryan Fitzpatrick2126.00
Bernard Reedy144.00
Jacquizz Rodgers310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans38951
Cameron Brate68761
Adam Humphries67510
Charles Sims45450
DeSean Jackson36381
O.J. Howard13150
Doug Martin12110
Chris Godwin Jr.1190
Jacquizz Rodgers1160
Luke Stocker1150

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer18/2228331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson261345.22
J.J. Nelson11616.00
Kerwynn Williams3144.70
Carson Palmer5-4-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald10111381
John Brown34631
Jermaine Gresham22320
Jaron Brown11300
Troy Niklas22201
Andre Ellington0100
J.J. Nelson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.18