2017 · Week 6
Final
University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.129
- 44.2%Success rate38.8%
- +0.090EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.207
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.38CPOE-4.25
- 42.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.79Points / drive1.20
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–4 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. ARI are 7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/32 | 290 | 3 | 2 |
| Jameis Winston | 5/10 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Reedy | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 3 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 6 | 8 | 76 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 18/22 | 283 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 134 | 5.2 | 2 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 10 | 11 | 138 | 1 |
| John Brown | 3 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.18