2019 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -5.5
Total
51
Model margin
+4.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.000
- 42.7%Success rate43.6%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.084
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.168
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- -1.81CPOE+0.42
- 36.0%Third-down rate42.2%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
- 1.85Points / drive1.86
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 5–4 since 1999
TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. TB are 2-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 27/44 | 324 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 10 | 138 | 3 |
| Andy Isabella | 3 | 3 | 78 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 30/48 | 358 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 1 |
| T.J. Logan | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 8 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 12 | 74 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| T.J. Logan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.96