2019 · Week 10

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

27·30

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -5.5

Total

51

Model margin

+4.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.000
  • 42.7%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback+0.084
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.168
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -1.81CPOE+0.42
  • 36.0%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate71.0%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.86
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 5–4 since 1999

TB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. TB are 2-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13ARI @ TB17–20TB
2022 · W16TB @ ARI19–16TB
2017 · W6TB @ ARI33–38ARI
2016 · W2TB @ ARI7–40ARI
2013 · W4ARI @ TB13–10ARI
2010 · W8TB @ ARI38–35TB
2007 · W9ARI @ TB10–17TB
2004 · W17TB @ ARI7–12ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–TB
TBQ1 15:0033Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 13:41618Field goal3–0
TBQ1 11:131470Touchdown3–7
ARIQ1 3:421049Field goal6–7
TBQ2 14:141160Field goal6–10
ARIQ2 8:533-11Punt6–10
TBQ2 7:4237Punt6–10
ARIQ2 6:1034Punt6–10
TBQ2 5:1335Punt6–10
ARIQ2 4:14996Touchdown13–10
TBQ2 1:03775Touchdown13–17
ARIQ2 0:0800End of half13–17
ARIQ3 15:00564Turnover on downs13–17
TBQ3 13:08849Field goal13–20
ARIQ3 8:37275Touchdown20–20
TBQ3 8:10721Punt20–20
ARIQ3 4:58518Punt20–20
TBQ3 3:1845Turnover20–20
ARIQ3 1:4629Turnover20–20
TBQ3 1:141171Field goal20–23
ARIQ4 9:44950Touchdown27–23
TBQ4 7:22427Turnover27–23
ARIQ4 6:38641Turnover27–23
TBQ4 3:40864Touchdown27–30
ARIQ4 1:4375End of half27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray27/4432431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray33812.70
Kenyan Drake10353.50
David Johnson520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk6101383
Andy Isabella33780
Larry Fitzgerald88710
Pharoh Cooper25290
Maxx Williams12150
David Johnson1180
Kenyan Drake6760
Charles Clay1150
Trent Sherfield0200
KeeSean Johnson0400

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston30/4835812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber11433.91
Jameis Winston34013.30
Ronald Jones11292.61
T.J. Logan166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans46820
Ronald Jones88770
Chris Godwin Jr.612740
O.J. Howard47471
Scott Miller23330
Dare Ogunbowale33240
Breshad Perriman24170
Peyton Barber1140
T.J. Logan0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.96