Closing spread
SD -6
Total
45
Model margin
+2.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 10/21 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 8/15 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 4 | 9 | 117 | 1 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.