Closing spread
SD -6
Total
45
Model margin
+2.7est.
SD perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Titans
- OutJamie WinbornLBShoulder· DNP
- OutRyan MoutonCBHamstring· DNP
- OutTony BrownDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJustin GageWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableChris JohnsonRBThigh· Full
- ProbableJacob FordDEHamstring· Full
- ProbableKerry CollinsQBright Finger· Full
- ProbableLeroy HarrisGHip· Full
- ProbableVince YoungQBKnee· Full
Chargers
- OutLarry EnglishLBFoot· DNP
- OutNate KaedingKright Groin· DNP
- DoubtfulLegedu NaaneeWRHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulMalcom FloydWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEToe· Full
- QuestionableBrandon SilerLBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableCraig DavisWRRibs· Limited
- QuestionableKris BrownKleft Ankle· Limited
- ProbableRichard GoodmanWRHand· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Safety | 2–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 2–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:00 | 15 | 83 | Touchdown | 2–7 |
| TEN | Q1 4:33 | 9 | 69 | Field goal | 5–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:17 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 5–7 |
| TEN | Q2 12:18 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 12–7 |
| LAC | Q2 8:08 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 12–7 |
| TEN | Q2 6:21 | 4 | 47 | Touchdown | 19–7 |
| LAC | Q2 4:43 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 19–14 |
| TEN | Q2 1:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 19–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:03 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 19–14 |
| TEN | Q2 0:02 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 19–14 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 19–14 |
| LAC | Q3 13:49 | 11 | 42 | Field goal | 19–17 |
| TEN | Q3 7:45 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 19–17 |
| LAC | Q3 6:12 | 5 | 86 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| TEN | Q3 4:20 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 19–24 |
| LAC | Q3 2:52 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 19–27 |
| TEN | Q4 12:01 | 1 | 71 | Touchdown | 25–27 |
| LAC | Q4 11:43 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 25–33 |
| TEN | Q4 6:51 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 25–33 |
| LAC | Q4 3:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 25–33 |
| TEN | Q4 2:38 | 11 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 25–33 |
| LAC | Q4 0:30 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 25–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 10/21 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 8/15 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 4 | 9 | 117 | 1 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.