2009 · Week 3

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

14·19

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

WAS -6.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapLions
  • -0.047EPA / play-0.169
  • 41.0%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback-0.183
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.144
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.16CPOE-6.85
  • 39.7%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.11
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10DET @ WAS44–22DET
2024 · playoffsWAS @ DET45–31WAS
2022 · W2WAS @ DET27–36DET
2020 · W10WAS @ DET27–30DET
2019 · W12DET @ WAS16–19WAS
2016 · W7WAS @ DET17–20DET
2013 · W3DET @ WAS27–20DET
2010 · W8WAS @ DET25–37DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DET
DETQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:091165Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ1 7:101498Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 1:20520Punt0–7
DETQ2 13:561169Field goal0–10
WASQ2 8:3039Punt0–10
DETQ2 6:531589Field goal0–13
WASQ3 15:00478Touchdown7–13
DETQ3 13:15626Punt7–13
WASQ3 9:07538Turnover7–13
DETQ3 6:563-4Punt7–13
WASQ3 5:0763Punt7–13
DETQ3 2:47525Punt7–13
WASQ3 0:12843Punt7–13
DETQ4 12:013-5Punt7–13
WASQ4 11:0037Punt7–13
DETQ4 9:10938Touchdown7–19
WASQ4 5:26872Touchdown14–19
DETQ4 2:36527Punt14–19
WASQ4 1:05655End of half14–19

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell27/4134021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis12423.50
Jason Campbell12121.00
Ladell Betts122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss10141781
Ladell Betts44430
Chris Cooley35380
Antwaan Randle El24210
Malcolm Kelly14180
Fred Davis11130
Rock Cartwright33121
Devin Thomas1270
Clinton Portis1160
Mike Sellers1240

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/3624110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith161016.30
Matthew Stafford22311.50
Maurice Morris8101.31
Calvin Johnson199.00
Aaron Brown561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bryant Johnson411731
Calvin Johnson57490
Will Heller22300
Brandon Pettigrew24270
Dennis Northcutt34230
Kevin Smith33180
Maurice Morris11120
Aaron Brown1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.63