2009 · Week 3
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
WAS -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.047EPA / play-0.169
- 41.0%Success rate39.2%
- +0.023EPA / dropback-0.183
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.16CPOE-6.85
- 39.7%Third-down rate35.8%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.38Points / drive1.11
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. DET are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 27/41 | 340 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 10 | 14 | 178 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 3 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/36 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 16 | 101 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryant Johnson | 4 | 11 | 73 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Aaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.63