2010 · Week 9

Final / OT

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Derek Anderson

24·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapVikings
  • -0.220EPA / play-0.112
  • 37.1%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.248EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.165EPA / rush-0.121
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -9.59CPOE-2.30
  • 27.4%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.25
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13ARI @ MIN22–23MIN
2022 · W8ARI @ MIN26–34MIN
2021 · W2MIN @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W6ARI @ MIN17–27MIN
2016 · W11ARI @ MIN24–30MIN
2015 · W14MIN @ ARI20–23ARI
2012 · W7ARI @ MIN14–21MIN
2011 · W5ARI @ MIN10–34MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–MIN
ARIQ1 15:0048Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:25412Turnover0–0
MINQ1 10:01228Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:142-5Punt0–0
MINQ1 8:0600Punt0–0
ARIQ1 7:4739Punt0–0
MINQ1 6:3144Punt0–0
ARIQ1 3:54622Punt0–0
MINQ2 15:00557Touchdown6–7
ARIQ2 12:1700Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 12:041061Field goal7–10
ARIQ2 6:22517Punt7–10
MINQ2 2:5448Punt7–10
ARIQ2 1:30776Touchdown14–10
MINQ2 0:2900End of half20–10
MINQ3 15:0000Touchdown21–10
MINQ3 14:48633Punt21–10
ARIQ3 10:49512Punt21–10
MINQ3 8:17558Turnover21–10
ARIQ3 5:161389Field goal24–10
MINQ4 12:401774Turnover on downs24–10
ARIQ4 6:1831Punt24–10
MINQ4 4:39435Touchdown24–17
ARIQ4 3:3436Punt24–17
MINQ4 2:24682Touchdown24–24
ARIQ4 0:273-9End of half24–24
ARIOT3-6Punt24–24
MINOT661Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson15/2617910
Steve Breaston1/11700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower13393.00
Derek Anderson3165.30
LaRod Stephens-Howling400.00
Chris Wells1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald7101070
Andre Roberts22291
Steve Breaston36280
Jim Dray11170
LaRod Stephens-Howling1290
Stephen Spach1140
Early Doucet1320
Jason Wright0100
Tim Hightower0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre36/4744622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson15815.41
Toby Gerhart263.00
Brett Favre210.50
Bernard Berrian1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin9121260
Bernard Berrian911890
Visanthe Shiancoe45661
Greg Camarillo45660
Adrian Peterson44631
Greg Lewis46300
Jeff Dugan1230
Toby Gerhart1130
Jimmy Kleinsasser0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.73