Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.220EPA / play-0.112
- 37.1%Success rate42.3%
- -0.248EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.121
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- -9.59CPOE-2.30
- 27.4%Third-down rate34.1%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.06Points / drive1.25
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. MIN are 7-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 15/26 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 10 | 107 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 36/47 | 446 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 9 | 12 | 126 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 9 | 11 | 89 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 4 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Greg Camarillo | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Greg Lewis | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.73