Closing spread
GB -7
Total
46
Model margin
+4.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play+0.076
- 43.2%Success rate45.9%
- +0.048EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.25CPOE+5.31
- 40.4%Third-down rate41.3%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.67Points / drive1.91
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/30 | 183 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 9 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/34 | 289 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Dimitri Nance | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 8 | 9 | 123 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 7 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.44