2010 · Week 9

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Jon Kitna

7·45

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

46

Model margin

+4.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPackers
  • -0.002EPA / play+0.076
  • 43.2%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.117
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +2.25CPOE+5.31
  • 40.4%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.91
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. GB are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–GB
DALQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:591241Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 5:29517Turnover0–0
GBQ1 2:35958Touchdown0–7
DALQ2 14:1533Punt0–7
GBQ2 12:18780Touchdown0–14
DALQ2 8:2636Punt0–14
GBQ2 7:091078Touchdown0–27
DALQ2 2:1300Touchdown0–28
DALQ2 2:04760Touchdown7–28
GBQ2 0:1600End of half7–28
GBQ3 15:0036Punt7–28
DALQ3 13:263-3Punt7–28
GBQ3 11:51863Touchdown7–35
DALQ3 8:384-5Punt7–35
GBQ3 7:211680Field goal7–38
DALQ4 13:08547Opp touchdown7–45
DALQ4 11:0736Punt7–45
GBQ4 8:4135Punt7–45
GBQ4 6:5645Turnover on downs7–45
DALQ4 4:391265End of half7–45

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna19/3018312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones5163.20
Marion Barber6142.30
Tashard Choice393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant910861
Jason Witten34440
Martellus Bennett33200
Miles Austin26160
Sam Hurd11110
Roy Williams1460
Felix Jones0100
Tashard Choice0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3428930
Matt Flynn0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson13423.21
Aaron Rodgers5418.20
Dimitri Nance451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones891231
Greg Jennings77801
Jordy Nelson46420
Brandon Jackson45261
Tom Crabtree1240
Brett Swain1320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.44